2010 season, Matthias, Pitch F/X, Sabermetrics, Toronto Blue Jays

Adam Lind : Sprayed and Neutered

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Coming off 2009’s breakout .305 average with 35 HR, to say Adam Lind is struggling at the dish is a gigantic understatement.

His average (.210) and contact rate are down considerably. He’s been virtually useless against lefties (27 K vs 3 BB, .297 OPS) and is striking out at career high levels.

Sometimes less is more. I’m going out on a limb here but I think projections, silver sluggers and overall “manliness” issues coming off of a 35 HR season have caused a change in Lind’s approach.

Spray Chart & Data

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Lind is going the other way with less frequency in 2010, although not at mind blowing levels. His newfound pull approach could be the reason for the significantly lower CF LD% in 2010.

Other Rates

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Adam’s putting the ball in the air in 2010. He’s also chasing pitches out of the zone at a high rate.

Pitch Data (runs above average per 100 pitches)

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Lind’s down across the board but he’s getting killed on sliders and changes.

General Assumption: He’s gearing up to smoke fastballs over the RF wall. In the past his “deep in the zone” approach allowed him to thrive on offspeed pitches.

Outlook

Obviously Lind needs to produce (or at minimum move down in the order) against lefties.

Outside of that I’d like to see Adam go back to his roots, spraying the ball with authority all over the diamond. Lay off a few more pitches out of the zone and hopefully Adam can get back on track.

Matthias Koster
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has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • Lind is killing us, not the ball…but there aren’t a lot of options to move up in our line-up. I think you have to stick with him in the 3 hole, and based on Cito’s history, he will no doubt leave him there.

    • I agree, leave Lind in the #3 hole vs righties. For the time being move him down a few spots to #5 or #6 against lefties until he starts producing against them.

  • Your analysis is spot on as usual Matthias. It’s funny to see that his line drive rate is actually a hair better in 2010 going to right field. That’s because those are the only balls he’s trying to square up. The line drive rates are extremely different to center field. It’s almost as if his approach at the plate is to just assume that a ball is not going to be on the outside part of the plate or that he won’t need left field and only goes that way as a last resort. It would also go a long way to explain the higher strikeout rate.

  • RC

    Lind had a nice double to left in the first game against Detroit today and is coming off that hit streak. Is he finally coming around? Strikeout numbers are still high.
    RC

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