Adam Lind vs Pre-Season Prediction Models
Is it stat time yet?
Right now Lind’s flyball to HR percentage is 50%! Last season it was 11%. He’s hit 27% linedrives so far. His wOBA is .571 & his BABIP is .474!
So what does any of this prove? Pretty much nothing at this point. I’d like to go into a big stat mining exercise but there’s really no point after six games. I know some in the “saber” community aren’t going to agree with this statement but sometimes its better to turn off your brain and just enjoy the ride.
The computer based programs didn’t show Lind a lot of love. On average they predict around 14 HR with 67 RBI.
Bill James uses stats along with his own intuitive spring and was easily the most optimistic. He predicted a .300 average, 23 HR & 105 RBI.
This screen capture from fan graphs contains stats in this order. Games, AB, PA, H, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, Runs, RBI, BB, IBB, SO. IE: On the first line 23 is the HR column
I’m not going to put my foot in my mouth and throw out any predications right now. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
Adam Lind 2009: 3 HR, 12 RBI, 5 Runs, .462 BA, 1 BB, 4 SO