BABIP Down Across MLB

Posted Apr 19 2012 by Matthias Koster in , , with 7 Comments

Babip Drop

This is yet another entry in my ongoing 'too early to tell' series. This is more of an observation than a statement.

BABIP is down dramatically on ground balls and line drives

Year Ground Balls Line Drives Fly Balls
2007 0.245 0.723 0.135
2008 0.236 0.718 0.142
2009 0.236 0.724 0.138
2010 0.234 0.718 0.138
2011 0.237 0.714 0.137
2012 0.221 0.699 0.139
And some poorly made graphs for GB and LD:

What's Up?

What's going on? The only idea that I can come up with (and it's only an idea), is the increase in defensive shifts across the MLB. This March John Dewan and Ben Jedlovec presented defensive shift data at the SABR Analytics conference. (Presentation powerpoint slides) Dewan wrote an article recently on this subject. Here's his conclusion on shifts
Unlike the anecdotal evidence showing how shifting seems to be working for the Rays and Brewers, we consider the 40- 50 point drop in batting average on grounders, short liners and bunts against the Ted Williams Shift to be direct evidence in favor of The Shift. Is it conclusive? No. Is it comprehensive? Not really. It’s only two years and doesn’t include all plate appearances. Is there more research to be done? Yes. – John Dewan ,http://www.billjamesonline.com/to_shift_or_not_to_shift/
I can't track down any publicly available numbers online regarding 2012 shifts. From an anecdotal standpoint, I've seen more shifts than I can remember from numerous clubs this season. The majority are against LHB but I've also seen a few vs RHB. I'll jump back into this article on June 1st to see what's going on with BABIP rates.

What do you think?

Are Lower 2012 BABIP rates caused by shifts? Is it too soon to draw any conclusions? Is there a different answer? Please share your thoughts in our comments section.

Notes: Data via Baseball Reference

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Matthias Koster has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and . Email at matthias.koster@gmail.comView all posts by Matthias Koster →

  • J. Paquin

    Pitchers are also getting filthier and filthier, leading to more weak contact (ground balls).

    I would think line drives would be more so a product of luck, but only time will tell. Could be increased athleticism in the outfield paired with better positioning, but you would think this would be more of a gradual change.

  • Jays of Thunder

    Not holding my breath, but is there any seasonality for BABIP? ie. Does it trend higher at all later in the summer with warmer weather?

    • Matthias

      Not that I know of. If there is any ‘standard logic’ behind weather changes it’s an increase in HR rate. I don’t know if this has been statistically proven.

      • Jays of Thunder

        Yeah, it kind of has an air of “folk wisdom” about it rather than being backed by data. I’m also curious about pitch selection as a contributing cause – a couple more “ifs”. If BABIP differs by pitch type/location (eg, BABIP on a slider at the knees lower than that for a fastball), and if pitchers in aggregate were throwing more sliders, that could provide a partial explanation.

  • Matt2pt0

    Teams are putting more stock in defensive value, perhaps in part due to improved metrics. I think a lot of GMs looked at the success of the Rays and thought “how are they doing this?” one of the answers being both defense AND shifting. The Moneyball era briefly led to a feeling of defensive unimportance , or at least, fungibility. no more!

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=502181426 Matthew Cowper

      Yep, I think this is basically correct- we’re continuing to move into a period of higher value placed on defence. I’d also suspect that defence is being taught better (take Derek Jeter- there was no physical reason why he had to be as horrible a defender as he was and is- he just never got taught proper positioning).

  • Lobb_gop

    I don’t think shifts can lead to an all-out lowering of BABIP as shifts are not used often enough to have that kind of an impact.

    I would be interested to know the more subtle changes that take place during an AB where a third baseman goes from his normal defensive position to guarding the line when the batter has two strikes because of the batters tendencies. I think these small adjustments in not only the infield but also the outfield may have greater influence over BABIP.

    As Matt2pto said, defence has become a focus for GM’s nowadays where they want to draft and sign players that are not liabilities on defence. The instance where this is untrue (see Cabrera in DET) is when the player’s offensive abilities outweigh his defensive liabilities.