Win for Toronto: Brad Lincoln Trade Thoughts and Scouting Report

Posted Jul 31 2012 by Matthias Koster in , , , , with 8 Comments

Brad Lincoln Jays

Last night the Toronto Blue Jays flipped the beloved Travis Snider for reliever Brad Lincoln. Jays blogs & Twitter users are less than happy– Oh, let’s face it, people are pissed.

I share my thoughts on the deal further down the page. But to start things off, I’m going to take a look at Lincoln’s 2012 season.

Why am I skipping ahead? I’m assuming you’ve read up on the trade and already know the gist of the deal:

“1st rounder for 1st rounder”

“Trading potential upside in Snider for Lincoln’s breakout season”

“OF for a RP”

“Lincoln found velocity, saving his career”

“He could start but Brad Lincoln’s basically a two pitch reliever: fastball & curveball”

This is what’s floating around on the web. And I can’t really argue any of these points; Nor do I want to. With that taken care of, let’s see what the Toronto Blue Jays new bullpen arm has done in 2012.

Brad Lincoln 2012: 59.1 IP, 51 H, 8 HR, 13 UBB, 60 K

Curveball

Line: .123/.134/.185

Velocity gains on the fastball seem to get all of the ink, however, the curveball is far and away Brad’s most effective offering. The batting line against is something to behold. Really, a .185 SLG % against?! Easily one of the best rates in the majors. There are also a number of other statistics that point to the dominance of this pitch.

  • BABIP (.194): 94%
  • wOBA (.140): 95%
  • Strike Percentage: 87%
  • Strikeout Percentage (40.2%): 80%
  • Velocity (83 MPH): 99%
  • Horizontal Movement: 97%
  • 0.074 Well-Hit-Average  (88%)

The curve is a combination of velocity and movement. It’s very similar to AJ Burnett’s curveball, except Lincoln throws his faster and with more movement. That’s one hell of a pitch.

It’s set up by his astounding fastball command.

Fastball

Line: 278/.342/.511

Velocity gains have been well documented. Lincoln has gained about 1.5 MPH on his fastball, and throws it at 93 MPH on average. He throws it for strikes early and often in counts.

  • Strike Percentage: 90%
  • Swing Percentage: 90%
  • Chase Percentage: 82%

Here’s a time lapse video his fastball location. Personally, I’d like to see him get the pitch down with more consistency:

Whiff rate of the pitch is around league average (15.2%), as is his BABIP against (.297).

I think, with a little bit of tinkering, there is some upside with Brad’s fastball. Clearly he can command the pitch at will to the middle tier of the strike zone. If he’s able to vary the pitch’s location and still throw strikes, it should limit opponents line (278/.342/.511) against the pitch.

If he’s able to do this, and maintain or even slightly regress his curveball’s success, he should be a dominate reliever for the foreseeable future.

Other Interesting Tidbits

Getting Squeezed

Conventional baseball wisdom is as follows:

Umpires will reward pitchers that are frequently around the strike zone<

Unfortunately for Brad, he’s been getting squeezed this season. ESPN has a filter for pitches considered ‘on the black’.

These pitches are called strikes, on average, 68.8% of the time across the MLB. Brad is only getting a strike call 55.6% of the time. This places him in the lowly 8th percentile. He’s getting squeezed, a fact that certainly goes against conventional wisdom.

Longball

The most troubling stat is Brad’s 8 HR allowed in 59.1  IP . The HR are coming off the fastball. On the plus side, the average distance is 398 feet, which is right at league average.

 

To infinity and beyond

Ok, perhaps not infinity; Brad is under team control until the 2018 season.

Prominent Back-End

Huston Street just signed a deal 2-year, $14 million contract (with an option). This contract has been hailed as a win for management by various Padre Blogs, including ChickenFriars.com:

… keeping a Closer around for $14 million over two seasons is a bargain when one considers how other Closers around the league like Heath Bell are earning upwards of $9 million per season.

2013′s potential 7th/8th/9th trio of Lincoln, Janssen, Santos will make right around $6.5 million combined during the 2013 season.

This low cost frees up monetary resources, which should allow the Jays to be aggressive in the Free Agent market and/or trading for high salary players.

While it hurts losing out on any potential upside from Travis Snider, the fact is he’s at best a platoon player at the MLB level.

The trade gives the Jays a glimmer of hope in 2012 and sets them up for a potential run in 2013. While my opinion in this matter may not be popular, I think this is a trade is a win for the Jays.

 

Sources: ESPN True Media, B-Ref, Image via http://www.pittsburghsportsreport.com 

 

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About the Author

Matthias Koster has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and . Email at matthias.koster@gmail.comView all posts by Matthias Koster →

  • http://www.mopupduty.com/ Callum Hughson

    +1

  • Ravens_creed

    You are the only two guys in Blue Jays land who seem to like this trade. I, for one, think Travis Snider is worth more than a relief pitcher. This is, perhaps, the first desperate move made by AA. You talk about saving money for the future, but I’m sorry, it’s been all talk and no action on that front since AA arrived. He’s talked his way around the media and the fans, but clearly he’s being told that saving cost is more important that retaining top talent, or building a winner. Unlike most others, I had some knowledge of Brad Lincoln before this deal, except I remember him as being a high pick for the Pirates and supposing to be a big part of their rebuild plans. The fact that he’s only a bullpen guy, and gives up HRs like it’s going out of style it s a huge letdown from what this guy could have been. I resent the statement that Snider is only a platoon OF at the MLB level. He’s been mistreated by Jays management to this point in his career, he’s shown flashes of brilliance every season, and this one is looking to be his best. Why give up a potential 5-tool stud for a guy who is basically a poor man’s Sergio Santos? I’ll bet Casey Janssen is feeling just swell about this deal (not). In the long run, the Blue Jays are going to lose this trade and we can all feel it coming.

    • http://twitter.com/matthiaskoster Matthias Koster

      While we have differing opinions, I’d like to thank you for contributing a well thought out comment.

      As with most AA deals, we’ll have to give this trade a few years to work itself out.

  • DaveC

    A look at Lincoln’s stats (and seeing the Pirates’ reaction) does do a little to calm the vitriol. I think we as fans (and I’m up there) projected what we wanted Travis Snider to be, and forget how unlikely it is he’ll ever attain those heights.

    My initial reaction still isn’t good, but there’s plenty of time for that to be wrong. Given how inconsistent relief pitching can be, it seems odd to trade a position player at a spot of current need (LF) for a reliever. It’s the opposite of the kind of trade that AA would ever make.

    Flipping back again, the Jays have seemed to be down on Snider since AA took over, and there’s a lot they know that we can’t possibly know. AA’s proven himself to be well ahead of the game in other deals, but this trade and the Happ one left a bad taste in my mouth for now.

  • Dylanlum

    You are confusing what Snider could be with what he currently is.

    What this article highlights is that even if Licoln tops out as a good closer/reliever that is proving to he worth a lot of money.

    You say that AA hasn’t demonstrated that he’s willing to pay for UFA stars. Fine, no argument from me. But AA has demonstrated a willingness to sign his own stars and lock them in while in the prime of their careers. The money saved here could be used for a Rasmus extension. And remember that this is the worst case scenario. If the coaches can teach Lincoln to refine his change up so that he has a 3rd pitch then he could be a 3/4 starter which would save even MORE money which could be applied to locking up our stars or eventually entice AA to go after that missing piece in FA.

  • Coollet

    I still blame Riccardi

  • Craig Hughes

    Pittsburgh weighing in here. We loved Lincoln in his bullpen role as he was often lights out. As a starter he started having a lot of trouble after this first time through the lineup. Toronto received a great 2-3 inning relief man, not a big requirement in the National League but can help the Jays much more. Pittsburgh needs a big bat and obviously we hope Snider lives up to his potential.

  • CalgaryJaysFan

    Unless Snider significantly improves his consistency at the plate (and he’s not that young anymore), I think this will wind up being a solid move for the Jays.

    Bautista and Rasmus have 2/3 of the OF spots covered for the forseeable future. The franchise had Davis, Snider, Thames, Gose and Sierra ready to fill the LF spot next season, while possibly fighting for the DH spot as well (along with Lind, Gomes and possibly even Cooper and d’Arnoud). That is a glut of good young talent that is MLB-ready. I personally thinks Thames had the least value/potential of those 5 OF and with Snider down to just 1 option remaining (prior to his callup), the writing was on the wall.

    With Cordero traded away, Frasor and Lyon free agents after the season (Oliver has a team option), I think Lincoln could come in and be a great addition to Janssen and Santos next season. If Perez returns to form, along with guys like Happ, Carpenter, Delabar and possibly Villanueva and/or Laffey all returning to the bullpen, it could suddenly be huge strength for the Jays.

    R-RP: Santos, Janssen, Lincoln, Villanueva, Carpenter, Delabar
    L-RP: Oliver, Perez, Happ, Laffey

    With Janssen (30) and Oliver (ageless) being the only guys in/beyond their 30′s, it’s also a relatively young group of relievers. Adding Lincoln could also make AA comfortable letting both Frasor (35 this month) and Lyon (33 this month) walk after the season, which would clear $9.25M off the books, which could be a side-benefit of the trade that is only realized when a high-priced free agent is added in the offseason, using the money that is currently going to those two pitchers.