Brett Myers Contract : Good Value?
When this deal came across the wire, most casual fans were asking €œWho’s Brett Myers?€ Well, I think Brett Myers is a great pitcher, and certainly one of the most under-rated hurlers in the game. He’s been unlucky in the win column, with 13 & 12 a season in 05′ & 06. But in those two breakout seasons he’s posted an ERA under 4.00, which is pretty remarkable when you consider the park he pitches in. His strikeout per nine innings rank is 3rd & 4th in the NL over the same two year stretch. He’s a solid #2, and a low level #1, although I don’t think too many would consider him a true €œace€.
Brett Myers agreed to a three year contract that will total $25.75 million. This contract covers Brett’s two remaining arbitration seasons, and his first year of free agent eligibility. With signing & additional bonus’, the contract averages $8.58 million per season.
You all know by now that I’m a big supporter of pre-arbitration contracts & contract control. This is why this deal doesn’t make any sense to me. Dontrelle Willis recently signing for a one year, $6.45 million contract to avoid arbitration, giving us a somewhat comparable situation.
Willis can be seen as a comparable pitcher to Myers in 2006, but his past success, especially in 2005 would give him an edge with the arbitration committee. So I don’t think Myers would command the same arbitration money as Dontrelle. Let’s assume Brett would earn $5.5 million in each of his two arbitration rulings. Well, that gives us $11 of the $25.75 million, leaving a total of $14.75 million to cover his 2009 free agent eligible season. Would Myers command this kind of money in a free agent market? It’s possible that he could get this money averaged out over a five year contract, with questionable pitchers like Meche & Lilly cashing in. But is he really in that ace caliber yet ($15 million per season)? Maybe the Phillies are hedging their bets. But all things considered, I think they should have just rode out the arbitration years and re-evaluated the situation. At that point, Myers may very well command around $15 million per season. But he may also remain at his current, dependable level and be had for $10 – $12 million per season. So they really have gained nothing but goodwill by paying in advance. But the answer of the value of this deal may very well be answered in the coming years.
