Derek Jeter: Will not Repeat 2006 Success

 

Last Season Key Stats: .343 BA, 14 HR, 118 Runs, 97 RBI

Derek was by far the leader in American League BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) with a .395 mark. Second place went to Joe Mauer at .370 and only a total of six players in the AL had a BABIP of .350 or better. Jeter’s previous BABIP were .317 in 2004 & .353 in 2006. Even if Derek hits a robust and likely league leading .370 BABIP, his average will take a big hit due to his high contact rate.

Along with the BABIP stats, he did have a great 22.3% Line Drive Percentage, but as we’ve seen in past posts, I’m a little leery on buying into the LD stats 100%.  On the down side, he continued to hit a high amount of groundballs (easy to score, so I can believe these numbers), with a 59.4% GB rate (2nd in AL). Ground balls are typically harder to get hits off of. Directly below Jeter in 3rd place in GB ratio was Angel Berroa, who ended up hitting .234 (1st place was Luis Castillo).

Hitting well over .100 points from his usual career averages, his .381 batting average with runners in scoring position will be all but impossible to repeat, so I think we can expect a downgrade in his RBI total as well.

Many of the statistic predicating methods such as VORP & Marcel include an age modifier. Under these systems, Jeter will regress statistically. While he will turn 33 in the middle of the season, I personally think that age won’t be much—if any—of a factor behind the decline in his numbers. I think it will simply come down to his incredible luck of 2006 coming down to regular levels.

 

Derek Jeter 2007 Statistical Prediction:

 

.318 Batting Average, 112 Runs Scored, 14 Home Runs, 76 RBI