Effective Wildness : Part 1 of 3

 

 

There are many “rules” of pitching that have been passed down from generation to generation. One of the more popular examples is getting ahead in the count. Another is keeping hitters off balance by mixing pitches and changing speeds. And yet another is owning the inside portion of the plate. Has pitching inside become a lost art? We’ll get to that question later on. But for now, we’re going to look at the results of the 2005 & 2006 seasons to see who isn’t afraid to knock somebody on their ass.

 

 

 

The ratio we’ll use is very simple and will be named Effective Wildness;

Walks (BB) / Hit batsmen (HBP)

 

Why this ratio? Well, the logic behind it is as follows; Wild pitchers may hit a larger portion of batters simply due to lack of control. A sign of this is clearly high walk totals. Conversely, a pitcher with low walk totals is assumed to have a higher level of control, thus when they hit a batter, the probability of them doing it on purpose is higher than that of a wild thrower.

2006 Top 10 (1st Table), & 2005 Top 10 Effective Wildness

 

 

 

 

 

Milwaukee Brewer David Bush is the reigning two-time champion of effective wildness. In 2006 he threw 166 strikeouts, 38 walks (4.37 K/BB ratio), but 18 HBP! Think about that for a second. His great 4.37 ratio placed him 1st amongst all NL pitchers in K/BB ratio. That’s no small feat, and requires a high level of control & stuff. But he hit 18 batters against 38 walks. His effective wildness ratio of 2.11 was 41% lower than 2nd place, and was almost doubled by the sixth place ratio of 4.1.

 

 

Bush himself accounts for two of the five sub 3 ratios since 2005. The bottom line? Don’t lean too far inside when you’re in the box against David Bush.

 

 

Outside of David Bush, the top 10 supplies a few names that weren’t too big of a surprise (Pedro, Weaver, Willis), along with some surprises (Nolasco, Ramirez). The combined record of the top 10 was 107 – 104 in 2006, and 104 – 97 in 2005, which is above .500 but nothing too spectacular. Also, outside of Bush, no pitcher appears in both seasons top 10.

 

 

Does a low ratio translate into success? For that answer, we’ll need to bring in a larger set of data. And next time, we’ll do exactly that by examining some of all-time lowest BB/HBP single season ratios. And in part three, we’re going to look at the ratios of some of the all-time feared pitchers such as Bob Gibson, and company. So lay your bookmarks, and notify your RSS readers, as we still have a ways to go.