Updated: Eric Thames: Outside Adjustments

Posted May 1 2012 by Matthias Koster in , , , with 15 Comments

Thames Groundball

Note: This article has been updated as of May 1st, 2012. Part 1 is the untouched original article, going over the premise that Thames needs to adjust to how he’s being pitched. Part 2 is down the page and includes statistical & graphical updates of Thames production from mid-April to May 1st.

Part 1 (Original Article)

The Toronto Blue Jays are a little over 5% into the season. They are on pace to blow 72 saves. EE is on pace to hit over 50 HR. Everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt, including this post. And on that positive note, let’s dive into Eric Thames GB data.

Numbers and Such

Thames has put balls into play 22 times, 15 of these have been on the ground. Of the 7 remaining balls, 2 have been infield flies. Without saying, this is certainly not the greatest of starts and is certainly a leading factor is his .250/.296/.292 line with .261 wOBA.

The Book

Tom Tango aside, the league may be putting their version of ‘The Book’ into action vs Thames.

In 2011 Thames was called up to the show. Since he wasn’t a hot shot prospect, opponents data was likely sparse. Eric had a decent season and while his OBP was nothing to write home about he did slug .456 and hit 12 HR.

Jumping into his HR data, he pulled all but one HR.

The majority of these pitches were up and either inside or near the middle of the plate.

As the season wore on, Thames production started to drop. He ended the season on a sour note, posting a .651 OPS, .284 wOBA and watching his BABIP drop to .243, as his GB% jumped from the mid-30′s to an astounding 52.1% for Sept/Oct.

Here is a heat map chart of pitches that resulted in GB from the 2011 season. Contrast this to the above HR location data that we just looked at.

For the 2011 season Thames hit .198 vs GB with a lowly .200 SLG percentage.

Last season Thames hit only .228/.264/.344 against outside offerings. This is compared to .262/.313/.456 vs inside pitches and finally .266/.292/.451 against middle location.

2012

Teams appear to be using the outside formula against Eric this season, which has resulted in the aforementioned 15 GB in 22 balls in play. Here is a heat map of all pitches vs Thames in 2012.

Outside of middle and down, anything that’s inside or middle is likely a mistake.

Takeaway: Eric is going to have to prove to opposing teams that he can drive outside pitches for extra bases. Until he can do so, why pitch him any other way?

Future Updates: As with last week’s J.P. Arencibia framing data on FB & off-speed pitches, I’ll jump back into this data in May to update on how teams are pitching Eric.

Part 2 (Update, May 1st)

As promised, an update to Eric Thames: Outside Adjustments, how he’s been pitched and any potential adjustments he’s made. For data April 18th – April 30th.

Caveat: It goes without saying that roughly two weeks of data is a small sample.

Stats: 45 PA, .341/.400/.537 line with 2 doubles, 2 HR and a .400 BABIP. After starting the season with a 68% groundball rate, Thames has hit 12 FB & 6 LD vs 14 GB over the past two weeks, which is a great improvement.

Graphical Data

Since the original article teams have continued to pitch Thames away. There have been some mistake pitches inside. There has also been an increased frequency of pitches just off the plate outside.

Hit Chart: Thames is finding success going with pitches on the outer portions, hitting singles & doubles to the opposite field. He’s pulled his two HR.

Thames singles, followed by doubles.

Thames taking advantage of pitches that creep back in, hitting his two HR.

This following piece of data is a great sign: Thames hit 6 line drives over this stretch, primarily on away pitches.

While this led to no extra base hits, 4 of the 5 singles went the other way. This tells me that Thames is starting to adjust and is looking to drive pitches to the opposite field.

Take Away: It’s only been two weeks but Thames appears to be making a concerted effort to work with what pitchers are giving him, driving pitches the other way and capitalizing on mistakes that creep into the inside portion of the plate.

Next Update: I’ll give this data some time to breath and make an additional update at the All-Star break.

Notes: Charts, Maps via ESPN Tru Media, Photo via Google Images, Stats via ESPN Tru Media, Fan Graphs

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About the Author

Matthias Koster has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and . Email at matthias.koster@gmail.comView all posts by Matthias Koster →

  • Josh Clatworthy

    Too early to even write this – great analysis but save it for a few more weeks down the road!

    • Matthias

      Thanks for the comment.

      Normally I would agree with you but after Thames rough Sept/Oct GB rate of 50% I’m starting to get concerned.

      But time will tell, we’ll see how teams pitch to him for the rest of April.

  • Anthony

    Great analysis, fun to read this kind of stuff. Do you think Snider is playing well enough in the minors so far to challenge if Thames can’t pull it together?

    • Matthias

      Thanks for taking the time to post a comment.

      Snider has been destroying PCL pitchers in the early going. I’d like to see a larger sample vs lefties. The way I see it:

      I give Thames till the end of the month
      If he doesn’t adjust and produce some extra base hits I’d flip flop him for Travis

      Normally I’d like to give a guy more than a month. But with the Sept/Oct trend last season, plus Thames D continuing to look horrible (he looked rough once again in the Balt series) I’d be willing to pull the trigger on a demotion sooner rather than later.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/K3QUIZZAQ4JTOT34ITKUY3NW7Q RogerV

        I don’t need to tell you triple-A lefty pitching is not the same as ML lefty pitching, so it’s really not a good barometer. Snider needs to stay right where he is. This team is not a contender yet, there’s no need to panick (and yes you actually are). Let Snider have at least one season or most of one season without any promotion (except due to injury) in triple-A

        • Matthias

          Thanks for taking the time to post a comment.

          I would’t say that I’m panicking. Regardless of this seasons team win/loss goals, it’s hard to justify having a starting LF in the AL east slugging under .400, which is a real possibility for Thames if he can’t adjust to how he’s being pitched.

          While the answer doesn’t have to be Snider, there’s no point in keeping Thames up at the MLB level if he can sort this out ‘off clock’ in Vegas.

          Personally, I hope Thames turns things around (currently slugging .267) and puts this whole issue to rest. Whether he will or not is the question.

        • Murphyanthony

          I think Snider’s performance in the MLB in past seasons with the big club will count in his favour. It was really a tough choice to send him down and Thames should be feeling the pressure.

        • ChrisF83

          i have to chuckle at your assertion that the author is panicking. There’s a difference between panicking and playing the best player, there’s no question Travis has greater upside than Eric – he just needs to learn how to hit a big league curveball, its debatable whether or not he can even achieve this in AAA.

  • Jays & Buds

    Great site! Much better insight on here than some of the other blogs I’ve read.

    Although I like Thames I do see the reasons for concern and I also have to admit I’ve always had a soft spot for Travis. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to be a legitimate ML player.. not a AAAA. Hopefully the jammed finger he recently suffered doesn’t act as a set back and he continues mashing.

    Whether it be this season or they give him his first full season in AAA (Which would be his first full season at any single level since joing the minors), I just hope that the next time he’s up.. it’s for good.

    It better be seeing he’s out of options!

  • ChrisF83

    Excellent post, very informative. And these less than impressive stats are primarily against RHP, since he and Davis have essentially been platooning the LF position so far this year.

  • contoursoft

    If both have major weaknesses. I would rather see Snider take his lumps then Thames at the big league level.

  • ChrisF83

    Great article – is there a free resource where I can make my own heat map chart for hitters?

    • Matthias

      Not that I know of. A free alternative is fangraphs

  • ChrisF83

    The question is how much more time have these recent adjustments earned thames at the MLB level?

    • Matthias

      I think he’ll now get until at least the all-star break unless he falls off the deep end or his D becomes unbearable.

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