For some reason Henry is still at the major league level. Why? Well, I’m sure we could fall back on the Dickey personal catcher, maturity, clubhouse leader traps. But the fact is, Blanco’s internal pitch statistics just SCREAM out that he’s over the hill.

Let’s cast aside Henry’s full-time pitcher like line of .160/.192/.200 , and jump right into a few of the warning signals.

Fastballs (92+ MPH):

Blanco has faced 35 pitches at 92+ MPH this season. He has exactly 1 hit on 21 swings (with 14 takes). Of these 21 swings 8 pitches were fouled off and 7 were misses. The remaining 5 swings were put into play–weakly. Blanco has one of the majors worst WHAV (well-hit averages) on 92+ MPH fastballs.

• Blanco BA on these pitches: .100 (.270 MLB Average)
• Blanco WHAV on these pitches: .100 (.201 MLB Average)

Inside Location:

Anything inside is just eating Blanco up. So far:

• 25 pitches total
• 12 swings
• 5 misses, 5 foul, 2 in play
• Total of 0 hits in 6 outcomes

Well-Hit-Average

And finally, on an overall basis Blanco has exactly one well hit ball… all season. That’s in ten games and eight starts! His WHAV of .040 is by far the worst in the MLB. Even Juan Pierre, with the 7th worst rate in the majors, has a WHAV of .109.

Now yes, sample size is rearing it’s ugly head. But do we really want Blanco to stick around and increase his sample?

It’s time to cut ties and bring up Josh Thole.

By no means is Thole a saviour. But he can catch R.A. Dickey; brings a lefty bat to the lineup; and he’s been on fire down in AAA Buffalo, posting a .352/430/.523 line with an 11/11 K/BB ratio.

The season is far from over. But for the Toronto Blue Jays to claw their way back into respectability they need to start putting their best team of the field. Replacing Blanco isn’t going to turn the season around all by itself but it’s a move in the right direction.

Sources: Stats, Photos via ESPN 

A 162 game baseball season is clearly a Marathon– not a sprint. Experienced runners don’t view a Marathon as a whole 42.2 KM race; they tend to chop it down into smaller chunks such as four separate 10 KM splits with a few KM left over at the end.

And this is the approach that the Jays have to take. After last nights epic seven run comeback, the Jays have to section this season off into four parts, forget the past and ride their newly found positive momentum into the future.

• Part 1: Opening day until last nights ‘rebirth’  OVER
• Part 2: Now until the All-Star Break
• Part 3: Dog days of summer
• Part 4: September to October playoff stretch drive

While the Jays have been nothing short of horrid up to this point, the reality is the club sits only 9 games under .500.

There are 63 games left until the all-star break. To reach the .500 mark the Jays will need to go 36 – 27 over this stretch, a very reasonable .571 winning percentage. This at least gives them an outside chance at shocking the baseball world down the stretch.

Last season the Orioles, winner of an AL Wild Card playoff birth,  were 45 – 40 at the break.

While not probable, a late charge is not out of the realm of possibilities for the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays; especially if/(hopefully when) numerous member of the roster play up to their potential.

But it has to start now… RIGHT NOW.

First off, a quick overview as to what has gone wrong.  The opening day lineup was supposed to look like this:

1.  Jose Reyes, SS
2.  Melky Cabrera, LF
3.  Jose Bautista, RF
4.  Edwin Encarnacion, DH
5.  Brett Lawrie, 3B
6.  Adam Lind, 1B
7.  JP Arencibia, C
8.  Colby Rasmus, CF
9.  Emilio Bonifacio/Maicer Izturis 2B

You may correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think this lineup has played together a single game yet so far this season.  Brett Lawrie opened the season on the DL, Jose Bautista missed games due to a back injury and ear infection and Jose Reyes suffered a devastating ankle injury.  Reyes’ injury has been the most significant because it sends shockwaves through the lineup.  It throws the leadoff position in flux and significantly lessens the infield defense.  The likes of Rajai Davis, Emilio Bonifacio and Munenori Kawasaki have been slotted in the lead-off role; none of them possess on-base ability that even approaches respectability.

This puts the Jays behind the proverbial “8-ball” at the beginning of every game, because they are giving away the first out more often than not.  Both Melky Cabrera and Jose Bautista have struggled to get on base.  If the Jays are in fact able to string together a walk and a base hit, it seems to happen with two outs. The rally is then killed tout suite by the gaping hole that is the bottom half of the order. That’s been the most frustrating thing, and what makes it painful to watch this team play.  Colby Rasmus has struck out in nearly half of his at-bats; JP Arencibia is striking out when he’s not hitting solo home runs.  Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis are non-entities.  Adam Lind has exceeded his low expectations by getting on base at a 40% clip, yet he still clogs up the base paths and is not hitting for any power.  While a singles hitter who can take a walk is valuable, you generally don’t want him to be your first baseman.

The only player who has been really fun to watch is the band-aid solution at shortstop, Munenori Kawasaki.  He’s fun to watch because of his enthusiasm for the game and his off-the-wall antics, not because he’s a good baseball player – and that’s unfortunate.  He’s only a couple of ticks above David Eckstein in terms of range and with the bat.  And that’s when Eckstein was in Toronto.

Photo credit: Jim McIsaac/ESPN

In terms of team defense, there is no sugar-coating it: the Blue Jays have been embarrassing.  Mark DeRosa and Bonifacio were nightmarish at third base when filling in for Brett Lawrie.  Save for one highlight-reel play, Rajai Davis has been Rajai Davis in right-field when filling in for Jose Bautista.  That is to say, not very good.  Whether he’s pressing to do too much or his head is elsewhere, JP Arencibia has regressed terribly with his defensive game.  The Melkman has been a definite improvement in left field, though his throws to the plate leave a lot to be desired.  The overall theme has been sloppiness.  Again, like rallies that continue to be killed, no one wants to watch the best players in the world play baseball and play it sloppy.  It’s maddening.
 
It hasn’t been all bad, however. Colby Rasmus has been quite good in centrefield.  It has been enjoyable watching him glide around effortlessly to balls that most centrefielders have no business getting to.

The rotation has also had its share of issues.  On paper, it was supposed to look like this:

1.  R.A. Dickey
2.  Brandon Morrow
3.  Mark Buehrle
4.  Josh Johnson
5.  JA Happ

And on paper, it sure looks impressive.  But it hasn’t been so.  While none of the starters have hit the DL (thankfully), two of the five are walking wounded.  Our ace, R.A. Dickey, has been battling through broken fingernails and inflammation in his back.  Josh Johnson has tightness in his triceps.  It seems as though Brandon Morrow is still finding his release point.  He shows flashes of brilliance, but will unravel after a walk, a broken bat single and a pitch left over the plate that ends up in the seats.  He will only get better.  In regard to Mark Buehrle, Drew Fairservice said it best in the National Post’s Blue Jays Blogger panel.  When asked which Jays player is most likely to disappoint, Drew remarked:

Mark Buehrle.  Cannot speak highly enough of his durability, but he’s aging and wasn’t exactly a star to begin with.

To me, he does seem a tick below what he was last year in terms of both stuff and command.  Couple that with the fact that he will start half of his games in the homer dome, and we may have ourselves a league-average starter on our hands (at best).

Josh Johnson in the #4 spot is an absolute treat.  He would be a #1 on many MLB teams and to put him up against opposing team’s #4 starters is downright unfair.  And at times, Johnson has been unfair to opposing hitters with his overpowering stuff.  But he has been maddeningly inconsistent.  He will strike out a string of hitters only to walk the entire ballpark.  Keep in mind that Johnson had a slow start last year.  I have no reason to believe he won’t work out the kinks.

As far as JA Happ is concerned, he’s just been “a guy” and thats really all you can ask of him.  He’s kept the Jays in games.

The real pleasant surprise has been the bullpen – expertly managed by John Gibbons.  They have had plenty of opportunity to surprise due to the fact that the starting staff can barely get out of the 5th inning.  Casey Janssen has continued with his smoke-and-mirrors act to provided flawless relief at the end of games.  Steve Delabar has once again been rock solid while carrying an extraordinary workload.  Esmil Rogers has been a pleasant surprise as has the rejuvenated Brett Cecil.  Darren Oliver is beginning to show his age but he’s still got enough juice left to be effective.  The return of a healthy Sergio Santos will only solidify the bullpen even further.

So, can this Jays team continue to really be this bad? No. The reason for this is that the best of this team is yet to come.  Lawrie has taken time to get back into the groove and he’s showing that he’s beginning to settle in.  The health issues that have ravaged this team will soon be alleviated.  While the absence of Brian Butterfield has been apparent, team defense will improve because it has to.  These are professionals and they will do what it takes to get better.  Defense is one of the easiest things to remedy because it gets better with more reps.

And once Jose Reyes returns? Look out.  This team is going to be fun to watch again.  While they have certainly handicapped themselves a great deal in the month of April, it will only serve to make the pennant race that much more interesting.

Photo credit: Kathy Knmonicek/AP SPORTS

Featured image courtesy of Chris Young/THE CANADIAN PRESS

What’s different? For starters, Arencibia’s is having early success this season by using the entire ballpark.

In 2012, he liked to pull damn near everything. Here’s a chart of his HR:

And here’s a busy chart of his singles, doubles, fly outs and line outs. (see Graphic for corresponding colour values):

Fast forward to this season and Arencibia’s 2013 HR chart:

And 2013 singles, doubles, fly outs and line outs.

That’s the plus; he’s using all fields and launching HR. The negative is an atrocious 28 K vs 1 BB rate in only 73 PA. Clearly a balancing act needs to be reached between Arecibia’s new found approach and his overall contact rate. Yet another interesting development to watch throughout this roller coaster 2013 season.

Upon first glance, Mark Reynolds game winning HR last night seems to be a matter of luck. He extended his zone and smoked a high fastball over 450 feet. But the real question is, why was he given a fastball in this two strike situation?

This is the second time this season Santos has faced Reynolds. The first time around on opening night Santos struck Mark out in three pitches.

Opening Night:

The decisive strikeout pitch was a foul tip on an outside slider. Note the other slider is fouled off.

Last Night:

Once again, notice a swinging strike on the slider, as well as a foul ball. At this point in the 2013 season, Reynolds has fouled off two sliders, and swung & missed on two sliders vs Santos.

And now for the decisive 1-2 pitch… a fastball. And check out where JP wants the pitch–way over the plate, almost middle location.

Click to play

The pitch got up and Reynolds hammered it 457 feet.

Here’s Reynolds 2012 splits vs RHP:

All in all, terrible pitch selection. Of course if Reynolds strikes out or takes the pitch for a ball no one–including myself–would complain. Yet all of the above data clearly points to throwing a slider in this situation. Where does the blame lie? While JP had no business calling for the fastball AND setting up in middle location, Santos ultimately has to shake Arencibia off and go to his bread and butter.

Sources: ESPN True Media, MLB.com

Scott Johnson, writing for Drunk Jays Fans, posted a great summary of the evening via 10 animated .gifs. (view all 10 here in a new window). Below are two of the gifs, blatantly stolen from the Drunks:

The issue wasn’t limited to just passed balls and dropped pitches; an additional point of concern is the number of flubs, and overall poor framing. Here’s a look at the called strikes from last night:

and the called balls, including a number of lower in the zone pitches that JP had a hard time catching, let alone framing:

Note: 2.3% = 1 called strike. Dickey lost 4 in the zone called strikes, along with a number of borderline pitches.

Many took to twitter to either complain (passed balls) or defend (first game of season) JP.

I’m not ready to throw the baby out with the bath water so-to-speak but one thing is clear: meaningful regular season games are not the place to learn to handle the knuckleball.

If JP is going to catch R.A. going forward he needs a number of side sessions. The Jays should also consider bringing in an in dependent league or even a retired knuckleballer to throw to JP, just to get him used to catching the pitch.

Fastballs

Considering Dickey throws the majority of his fastballs to pitchers, I was interested to see how he’d use the pitch last night. He threw the pitch six times, and it was very effective. In total he collected:

• 1 ball
• 3 called strikes
• 1 groundout
• 1 strikeout

Fastballs by count:

• 0-0 — 2
• 1-0 — 1
• 2-0 — 1
• 3-0 — 1
• 0-2 — 2

Not the greatest first outing for Dickey & company. On the plus side the Jays still have 161 games to play.

Sources: Animated Gif’s via Drunk Jays Fans, Data via ESPN Scouting Services, Front Image via Google Images

Although The Sessions is a phenomenal movie and I recommend it highly, that’s not what this post is about.  While watching The Sessions, we – the audience – are introduced to O’Brien’s poetry. The most compelling those poems, in my opinion, is the one which comes at the end of the film.  His Love Poem for No One in Particular describes how painful his predicament is. Paralyzed and powerless with the inability to express his love for another physically, O’Brien evokes deep feelings of frustration and sadness, but also hope:

Let me touch you with my words
For my hands lie limp as empty gloves
Let my words stroke your hair
Slide down your back and tickle your belly
For my hands, light and free-flying as bricks
Ignore my wishes and stubbornly refuse to carry out my quietest desires
Let my words enter your mind bearing torches
Admit them willingly into your being
So they may caress you gently within

 

- Mark O’Brien, Love Poem to No One in Particular, 1987

What a range of images and tones, connected and impelled by the steadiness of his voice.

I admit that I was touched as I heard that poem recited, and as the credits rolled, something piqued my interest (actually, I would have missed it altogether if it was not for my eagle-eyed friend).  The names of the poems were listed, and it credited the Love Poem to No One in Particular to a book called Love & Baseball: Poems on America’s Favourite Pastimes.  Mark O’Brien wrote poems about baseball?!  I sought the book out right away… and here we are.

Susan Fernbach & Mark O’Brien.  Photo credit: Mary F. Calvert/The Saratogian

Co-authored by O’Brien’s artistic and romantic partner, Susan Fernbach, Love & Baseball comes as advertised.  The book contains 27 poems about love, baseball, or both.  Buyer beware: the poems are centred much more on the former than the latter (not that it’s a bad thing).  While O’Brien’s poems are clearly stronger, Fernbach’s poems are worthwhile reads in their own right – and much more focused.

To me, the mark of a good poet is one that can articulate feelings that I can not.  The mark of a great poet, however, is one that can articulate feelings that I didn’t even realize I had until reading their prose.  Although Chad Harbach is not a poet, I found it when reading his excellent The Art of Fielding. I’m happy to say I find it again here within Mark O’Brien’s writing.

The highlight for me is In December, the Fan Looks Forward to Spring.  An excerpt:

I love this slow, exquisite, formal game,
Enjoyed by Mexicans and Japanese,
Because it gives me pleasures of the soul –
Flamboyant passions of the matador,
An oriental silkscreen’s certain peace.

and, of course there is the titular Love & Baseball, written by Susan Fernbach:

The men I’ve loved have loved the game.
Each of them has had something to teach me
About deep devotion.

When it comes to the topic of love, O’Brien is no slouch. In Rough Winds Do Shake the Darling Buds of May, he does his best Neruda impersonation:

the winds have softened, the Sun’s reclaimed her throne
in Heaven’s gaudy court, we’ll have our fling
memorize each other’s eyes until
we have them right and they become our own.

In short, this collection of poems is joyous, uplifting and devastatingly heartbreaking.  While serious at times, O’Brien’s wicked and also silly sense of humour shines through. In other words, this book contains something for everyone.

This hidden gem can be purchased from the publishing company that Mark O’Brien founded, Lemonade Factory Press.  Next up will undoubtedly be Sonnets & Strikeouts: More Poems on America’s Favourite Pastimes.

Photo credit: Ken O’Brien