Hindsight 20/20: Would You Once Again Make the R.A. Dickey Trade?

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The Trade:

December 17, 2012: R.A Dickey Traded by the New York Mets with Mike Nickeas and Josh Thole to the Toronto Blue Jays for Noah Syndergaard (minors), Wuilmer Becerra (minors), John Buck and Travis d’Arnaud. – source B-Ref

The Goal: Playoffs or bust

The Result: In Question


Last night MLB.com unveiled their 2014 Top 100 Prospects list, with both Syndergaard & d’Arnaud placing ahead of Aaron Sanchez and every other Jays prospect. Short scouting videos via MLB.com:

Noah Syndergaard: No. 11 overall; No. 3 RHP

 

Travis d’Arnaud: No. 22 overall; No. 1 C


 

Conversely, R.A. Dickey struggled, seeing dips in his K-Rate, increases to his BB-Rate and a drastic uptick in HR/9. He started to regain form in the latter half of the season, yet ended the season with a line of:

14-13, 4.21 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, and 2.0 WAR

With the Jays quiet off-season, many pundits, including the sports books, peg the Jays as a middle of the pack team in 2014.

Obviously this depends on your expectations regarding the Jays upcoming season, but in hindsight:

Would you once again make the R.A. Dickey trade?

Sources: B-Ref, MLB.com, G-Images

has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • Ben

    Wouldn’t have made it then. Wouldn’t make it now.

  • Jeff

    The Jays were going for broke last off season, so it made complete sense to do it then. Hard to justify it now that we know the team is a horror show.

  • Delabar’s Weighted Balls

    Last year I was 50-50. This year, looking back, I understand it more, so I’m like 60-40 in favour, even though Syndergaard might be a beast (might not). He’s probably ranked higher because he’s in the Big Apple.

    We needed help then. It was close to a fair trade at the time, but the timing along the development curves made sense for both clubs. D’Arnaud is also taking a long time to develop.

    Dickey can still be a plus pitcher at 12 mil/yr over the next 2 yrs + option. It’s hard to argue against the deal at the time, let’s revisit this question in a year as well!

  • Cameron McPhail

    Without the Dickey and Buerle deals, who would have pitched any innings for them last year? They would have been at least 10 wins worse.

    • http://www.matthiaskoster.com Matthias Koster

      While some will come back that they were about 6 WAR combined, I see what your saying.

      But ultimately, if the Jays had 10 fewer wins, would it have mattered in 2013?

      64 or 74 wins still misses the playoffs.

      • Cameron McPhail

        True – but how bad would the replacements been? They were already into double digits in their starters depth (Romero #6, Redmond #7, Rogers #8, Wang #9, R. Ortiz #10) with both these guys in hand and pitching 200+ innings each.

        Dickey is worth his salary. They rolled the dice on Josh Johnson and lost – him and Morrow healthy and they were a 90+ win team.

        It would have mattered to me. I was glued to my TV until they really went in the s&&&er. That win streak was the most fun I’ve had watching ball in a long time. In addition, both of those guys are assets which could be spun off should things go south.

        They are better than a 74 win team already- especially if the 2012 Brendan Morrow shows up for 25+ starts, if Dickey and Buehrle remember the bumps and hollows of pitching in the Rogers Centre (last 3/4 of year).

  • PB

    Obviously it wouldn’t have made a difference for last season’s goals, but the trade still makes sense for this season if the Jays want to make the playoffs.