Hitting down drastically. What’s up?

Hitting down drastically. What’s up?


Yep, it’s early in the season. However, a trend is developing.



Over the past eight seasons in the National League, the league average for home runs per game has been over 1.0.

The American league has had an even longer streak, with thirteen straight 1.0+ home runs per game.

2007 has seen a divergence in this trend, with the NL averaging 0.84 this season (vs 1.10 in 2006), while the AL averages 0.98 (vs 1.14 in 06).

I originally attributed this to a rise in doubles. This theory made sense to me on the surface when considering consistent HR hitters such as Derek Lee & Chase Utley hitting a multitude of doubles. After running the numbers, my tune has changed. In 2006, the AL averaged 1.89 doubles per game. This season is actually below that number, at 1.85. The NL has seen an increase in their overall doubles totals, 1.92 vs 1.86 in 2006, yet this increase is far from drastic.

Overall slugging percentages are down big-time, .405 in 07 vs .437 in 06 in the AL, and .399 vs .427 in the NL.

What can we attribute this too? We always hear about the €œdilution of pitching€ from the media and €œold-timers€. Some may point to the weather but I can’t see it having this large of an effect. Has pitching caught up? Are batters falling behind? What’s the deal?

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2 replies on “Hitting down drastically. What’s up?”
  1. says: Kman

    Not too much, although I did see on TBS the other day (sat or sun) that MLB homeruns were down 700 vs the same date last year. I figure I’ll do an update at the end of the year.

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