Fantasy Baseball: Don’t Believe the Hype – Brandon League & Carlos Quentin
Don’t Believe the Hype – Brandon League &
Carlos Quentin
Another new series, which will outline two players per article that will be over hyped come draft time. Give these articles a quick read, then sit back and watch your fellow owners bid up these 2007 fantasy players like the Royals bid up Gil Meche.
Brandon League
2006 Key Stat: .255 BABIP (Batting Average Balls in Play)
Brandon League is known for throwing some nasty gas, upwards to 98-99 mph. But, oddly, he’s been very hittable through his professional baseball career (2005: 78 hits in 63 IP in AAA & 42 hits in 35.2 IP in MLB, 57 hits in 54.2 IP in AAA in 2006). He changed things around in his half-season in Toronto in 06, with 34 hits in 42.2 IP. This equates to a .255 BABIP. So? Well, let’s compare his average with a few players:
Johan Santana: .273 BABIP, Roy Owalt .310 BABIP, Brandon Webb .293 BABIP, Roy Halladay .279 BABIP, Mariano Rivera .269 BABIP, K-Rod .288 BABIP, etc.
As you can see, even elite pitchers operate around .280+ BABIP. Brandon League has historically had a .300+ BABIP. Bottom line, he’s not going to be as lucky as he was in 2006, and a .40+ rise in BABIP will translate into an increased ERA & WHIP.
Carlos Quentin
2006 Key Stat: 18.4 HR/AB
Carlos Quentin is the real deal, there’s no doubt about that. But he’ll be over-rated come fantasy draft time. The BOB (or whatever they’re calling it these days) does have a high HR park factor, but Quentin’s newly found HR power is most likely an aberration. In the hitter happy PCL, Quentin had HR/AB rates of 21.52 and 35.3 in 2005 & 2006. In-fact, throughout his minor league career, his ratio is 24. Some players develop power, so there is a chance at a repeat. But everyone will look at the 2006 numbers and not focus on the historical trends. Don’t end up with another Jeremy Hermida–high HR total in short MLB stint, but historically low HR/AB ratio in minors—come draft day. Let the other owners bid him up and use your dollars elsewhere.
December 21, 2006
Brandon League is a tough one. He does throw gas with good late breaking movement so I don’t understand why he gets hit at the rate he does. My theory is that because of the movement on his pitches he doesn’t have the best control and often finds himself at the mercy of hitters counts. Arnsberg might have tweaked League’s approach/mechanics a little bit and perhaps he has figured it out. 42.2 IP is a small sample size and an extra run here and there goes a long way to skewing stats.
Quentin on the other hand I buy into (what a shocker that is). I do love up my young players and I still feel he is developing and getting better. However, I have learned by lesson being over zealous in drafting young guys and will steer clear of him in this year’s fantasy draft.
August 6, 2008
hi am your biggest fan love gio