Introducing ROB – Runs on Base

 

Introducing ROB – Runs on Base

 

 

Yep, I’m going to introduce yet another stat into the Mop Up Duty glossary. Speaking of a glossary, expect one explaining our usually phrases and stat descriptions later next week.

 

Ok, so you have the stat BOB (modified contact rate, Bat on Ball %), so what exactly is the ROB stat? Well, right off the bat (ha ha), the ROB (Runs on Base) is far from perfect, so if you wish to dispute it’s validity, than by all means say so in the comment section.

 

 

 

The equation for the ROB is as follows;

(Hits + Walks + HBP) – HR
(Runs – HR)

 

The reasoning and explanation is as follows. I’m looking to see which players score most often (and least often) when they are on base safely. To get this, we add up all of the occasions that a player ends a plate appearance standing safely on a base. Adding up his hits, walks, and hit by pitch shows us how many times he’s standing safely on a base, excluding fielders choices. (I cannot find a fielders choice statistic, but if you have one, please let me know where to find it in the comments section.) After adding up those stats, we subtract home runs, as the player scores himself on the play. Then we subtract his total runs minus home runs to get the final total. The total will represent the number of times on base per run scored. Obviously, the lower the ratio is the better, as you would rather have a player that scores once every three times that he is on base (3.0), than a player that scores once every five and a half times (5.5). A two+ point difference may not seem like too big of a deal at first, but then you have to consider how many times a player is on base per season. Most likely my explanation is a bit confusing, so I’ll use the example of Brian Giles in 2006.

 

(Hits (159) + Walks (104) + HBP (5)) – HR (14)
/
Runs (87) – HR (14)

 

= 254 / 73 = 3.48 times on base per run scored

 

As I’ve previously stated, this equation is far from perfect. It doesn’t take into account fielders choices. It also leaves out advancements from stolen bases, where a player hits in the batting order, and the ability of his teammates to knock him in.

 

Yet when the numbers are run, we end up seeing a pretty obvious trend between the players with speed (shown mostly through stolen base attempts) and those without. Here are the top and bottom 15 in ROB during the 2006 season, with a minimum of 300 plate appearances.
 

Top 15

 

First Name Last Name Runs Scored Home Runs Runs Batted In Stolen Bases Caught Stealing On Base Percentage Runs On Base (ROB)
Rickie Weeks

73

8

34

19

5

0.36253

2.169231

Jose Reyes

122

19

81

64

17

0.35378

2.223301

Hanley Ramirez

119

17

59

51

15

0.352518

2.235294

Jimmy Rollins

127

25

83

36

4

0.333773

2.235294

Scott Podsednik

86

3

45

40

19

0.330479

2.289157

Carlos Beltran

127

41

116

18

3

0.387987

2.302326

Willy Taveras

83

1

30

33

9

0.333333

2.329268

Corey Patterson

75

16

53

45

9

0.314286

2.338983

Brad Wilkerson

56

15

44

3

2

0.305785

2.341463

Maicer Izturis

64

5

44

14

6

0.365482

2.355932

Shane Victorino

70

6

46

4

3

0.345815

2.359375

Johnny Damon

115

24

80

25

10

0.358744

2.373626

Mark Grudzielanek

85

7

52

3

2

0.331046

2.384615

Grady Sizemore

134

28

76

22

6

0.374667

2.386792

Kenny Lofton

79

3

41

32

5

0.360465

2.407895

 

Bottom 15

 

 

First Name Last Name Runs Scored Home Runs Runs Batted In Stolen Bases Caught Stealing On Base Percentage Runs On Base (ROB)
Mike Piazza

39

22

68

0

0

0.341686

7.529412

Jay Gibbons

34

13

46

0

0

0.34127

5.52381

Brian Schneider

30

4

55

2

2

0.320088

5.423077

Ronny Paulino

37

6

55

0

0

0.360417

5.387097

Eliezer Alfonzo

27

12

39

1

0

0.301639

5.333333

Ryan Howard

104

58

149

0

0

0.424716

5.23913

Yadier Molina

29

6

49

1

2

0.273731

5.130435

Bengie Molina

44

19

57

1

1

0.318777

5.08

Josh Willingham

62

26

74

2

0

0.356021

4.944444

Manny Ramirez

79

35

102

0

1

0.439068

4.772727

Dan Johnson

30

9

37

0

0

0.323263

4.666667

Richie Sexson

75

34

107

1

1

0.337858

4.634146

Travis Lee

35

11

31

5

2

0.311856

4.583333

Frank Thomas

77

39

114

0

0

0.381038

4.578947

Jorge Cantu

40

14

62

1

1

0.294643

4.538462

 

The majority of the leaders group posses plus speed, and high spot in their batting orders, ensuring more runs. But I was surprised with the power numbers of the group, as four players within this group hit more than 20 home runs. The bottom group consisted almost exclusively slow runners, high power players, and a handful of catchers. A large number of the non-catchers on the list hit in the middle portion of their team’s respective batting orders. But, as you can see, this group possessed almost no stolen bases, and little speed overall. The bottom 15 group can also create a few questions as to the overall importance of OBP for slow runners. Three members of the bottom group had OBP % over .380. Yet none of them scored over 50 non HR runs (Howard: 104Runs-58HR = 46, Rameriz=44 Thomas=38). Only two players in the top group had OBP% of over .370, but they scored far more ROB runs (Beltran: 127Runs-41HR=86, Sizemore=106). 

 

Is a player’s position in the batting order the sole explanation to these numbers? Or does a player’s speed have something to do with the amount of runs he scores while on base? Is it a mixture?

has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • tangotiger

    If you make it 1/x, you get % of times scoring per time on base.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Kman

    Yeah, I messed around with the number, but I prefer the times on base. Maybe in the future I’ll list both. But we have so many percentages these days. Its nice to go to a game, see Beltran’s on base for a third time, having yet scored a run, and assume that he’s pretty much due. (2.3 times on base ratio instead of 43.4%)

    I’ll throw in both next time.

  • Early

    I like this stat. Most of it is pretty predicatble, but, when we can compare two leadoff hitters or two clean-up hitters or two catchers and see if they are making the most of their times on base we can see they have more valuable at-bats. A solid double-threat is a guy who knocks in a run and then scores a run. In 2001 Bonds only scored 56 runs that he didn’t knock in himself…so much for a .500+ OBP. In 1928 The Bambino hit 54 dingers and scored an amazing 109 runs that he didn’t personally knock in. We have to take into account the lineup of the ’28 Yanks vs the ’01 Giants but Ruth’s .480 OBP seems of more value than Bonds’ .515. ROB will show us this. Good stat.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Kman

    Thanks Early. Ruth was a giant at scoring runs, but nobody ever focusses on that, just the dingers.

    I have ROB part two ready for monday, and then after that I’d like to see if a equation or value can be placed on walks to slow running hitters (such as the bottom 15), and if a walk to a player such as this will really hurt an opposing team as much as convention believes.

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