Jake Peavy & Rich Hill : Opposite Directions

7-1 Record

1.68 ERA

0.98 WHIP

Domination. There’s really no other word to describe Jake Peavy this season. Big news right? To steal a phrase, let’s delve beyond the boxscore and see why Peavy is having this type of success this season.

Jake’s always been a high strikeout to walk pitcher and this year is no different, with 92 K vs 21 BB. Opponents haven’t hit over .250 against Jake in the past three seasons, and this year he’s throwing up a .202 BAA.

The big difference this year has been HR allowed. In both 2005 & 2006, Peavy allowed approximately one HR per 10 IP (18 HR allowed in 2005, 23 allowed in 2006). This season, in 80 IP, he’s only allowed 1. His past career trends would place him at 8 at this point. Now 1 HR in 80 IP is a tough ratio to maintain. If he can even lower this down to one HR per 20 IP, Peavy could be on pace for his best season yet. And that’s certainly saying something.

Rich Hill

 
Keeping up with our HR allowed theme, let’s turn to Rich Hill.

This cubbie’s prospect (if you can call him that at 27 years of age) made a slow climb through the minor’s and finally reached a full-time position in late 2006. This guy loves (probably hates) to give up the long ball, allowing 16 HR in 99.1 IP in 2006! 2007 hasn’t been much better, at least on the HR front, as he’s allowed 10 HR in 71.2 IP.

An old fantasy moto is this. Draft Cub fly ball pitchers, keep them for the first month (when the weathers cold and the ball isn’t traveling well) and then trade them. The moto should hold true here. In 2006 Hill had a very good 1.23 WHIP, but a high 4.17 ERA.  In 2007, he has a tiny 1.03 WHIP and a 2.89 ERA. The long balls are killing his ERA, plain and simple. In April Hill had a 1.77 ERA with only 3 HR allowed in 35.2 IP. As the weather has heated up in May, he’s allowed 7 HR in 29.0 IP & a 4.66 ERA. This guy’s headed in the wrong direction.