Frustrated. That’s how I felt at the start of this weeks series against the Chicago White Sox. And nothing has changed.
The awesome data that ESPN True Media provides this site illuminates, ever so lightly, an opposing pitchers tendencies. Undoubtedly the Jays have similar, likely more advanced tools; and it doesn’t seem to matter.
The current crop of ‘toolsy’ Jays during the White Sox series:
Davis/McCoy/Escobar/Gose/Hechavarria: 50 AB, 8 hits, 3 doubles, 0 HR. 10K, 5 BB
At some point this group, and the team in general, will turn things around. In the meantime it’s difficult to watch the Jays make fringe starters like Iwamura, Garcia, Nova, Liriano, etc look like staff aces.
Previewing Opposing Batters
Let’s change things up heading into this weekends series against the Texas Rangers, forgoing opposing pitcher previews and instead focussing on the Rangers five best hitters, how to get them out, and/or at least minimize damage.
- Players Name
- vs RHP or LHP
- Heatmap or strike zone breakdown
- Optimal Success Path(s)
Note: all breakdowns assume Jays pitchers will (attempt to) avoid throwing anything right down the middle of the plate.
- Avoid: Fastballs Away (.328/.420/.466) wOBA .392
- Throw him: Anything inside (.134/.301/.209) wOBA .260
- Avoid: Upper Half (.490/.581/.902), insane wOBA .609
- Throw Him: Slider (wOBA .142), Change (wOBA .194) Lower Half
- Avoid: Fastballs (.333/.419/.462) .381 wOBA
- Throw him: Curves (.304/.333/.304) .270 wOBA
- Avoid: Fastballs (.357/.444/.543) .419 wOBA
- Throw him: Anything off-speed. Change: .222 wOBA, Curve: .225 wOBA, Slider: .105 wOBA
- Avoid: Bottom Third Strike Zone (.433/.419/.917), wOBA .540, 13.3% HR Rate
- Throw Him: Top Third Strike Zone Fastballs (.222/222/.556), 33.3% K-Rate, 5.6% HR Rate
- Avoid: Inner Half (.341/.392/.773), 13.6% HR Rate
- Throw Him: Outer Half (.255/287/.394), 3.2% HR Rate
- Avoid: Strike Zone. Really, Beltre has a crazy split. In Zone: .345/.344/594, wOBA .391
- Throw him: Out of Zone. He will expand, with a 34.8% swing rate at balls. (.219/.331).260), wOBA .277
- Avoid: Horizontal Middle Location (.435/.435/.696), wOBA .483, 8.7% HR Rate
- Throw Him: Horizontal Outside or Inside Location (.220/.273/.290), wOBA .250, 1% HR Rate
- Avoid: Lower Half Fastballs (.289/.337/.605) wOBA .391
- Throw Him: Curves (.231/.268/.282) wOBA .249
- Avoid: Outside Fastballs (.333/407/667) wOBA .450
- Throw Him: Inside Fastballs (.118/.348/.118), wOBA .266
Sources: Heatmaps & statistical data via ESPN True Media, Texas Rangers logo via Google Images