Series Preview: Jays vs Rangers

Frustrated. That’s how I felt at the start of this weeks series against the Chicago White Sox. And nothing has changed.

The awesome data that ESPN True Media provides this site illuminates, ever so lightly, an opposing pitchers tendencies. Undoubtedly the Jays have similar, likely more advanced tools; and it doesn’t seem to matter.

The current crop of ‘toolsy’ Jays during the White Sox series:

Davis/McCoy/Escobar/Gose/Hechavarria: 50 AB, 8 hits, 3 doubles, 0 HR. 10K, 5 BB

At some point this group, and the team in general, will turn things around. In the meantime it’s difficult to watch the Jays make fringe starters like Iwamura, Garcia, Nova, Liriano, etc look like staff aces.

Previewing Opposing Batters

Let’s change things up heading into this weekends series against the Texas Rangers, forgoing opposing pitcher previews and instead focussing on the Rangers five best hitters, how to get them out, and/or at least minimize damage.

The format:

Players Name
vs RHP or LHP
Heatmap or strike zone breakdown
Optimal Success Path(s)

Note: all breakdowns assume Jays pitchers will (attempt to) avoid throwing anything right down the middle of the plate.

Ian Kinsler

RHP

Avoid: Fastballs Away (.328/.420/.466) wOBA .392
Throw him: Anything inside (.134/.301/.209) wOBA .260

LHP

Avoid: Upper Half (.490/.581/.902), insane wOBA .609
Throw Him: Slider (wOBA .142), Change (wOBA .194) Lower Half

Elvis Andrus

RHP

Avoid: Fastballs (.333/.419/.462) .381 wOBA
Throw him: Curves (.304/.333/.304) .270 wOBA

LHP

Avoid: Fastballs (.357/.444/.543) .419 wOBA
Throw him: Anything off-speed. Change: .222 wOBA, Curve: .225 wOBA, Slider: .105 wOBA

Josh Hamilton

RHP

Avoid: Bottom Third Strike Zone (.433/.419/.917), wOBA .540, 13.3% HR Rate
Throw Him: Top Third Strike Zone Fastballs (.222/222/.556), 33.3% K-Rate, 5.6% HR Rate

LHP

Avoid: Inner Half (.341/.392/.773), 13.6% HR Rate
Throw Him: Outer Half (.255/287/.394), 3.2% HR Rate

Adrian Beltre

RHP

Avoid: Strike Zone. Really, Beltre has a crazy split. In Zone: .345/.344/594, wOBA .391
Throw him: Out of Zone. He will expand, with a 34.8% swing rate at balls. (.219/.331).260), wOBA .277

LHP

Avoid: Horizontal Middle Location (.435/.435/.696), wOBA .483, 8.7% HR Rate
Throw Him: Horizontal Outside or Inside Location (.220/.273/.290), wOBA .250, 1% HR Rate

Nelson Cruz

RHP