With the recent release of 2011 Pecota projections, let’s check out the 2011 Projections on J.P. Arencibia.
While I don’t want to break down all of the specifics of each system (read official explanation: Pecota & Zips & Marcel), one of the bigger differences is Pectoa & Zips are park adjusted, Marcel is not.
Pecota is bullish on JP Arencibia. I could live with a .483 SLG & 26 bombs. Pecota included three comps. The first is Jake Fox, the third is Matthew Brown (essentially a career minor leaguer). The middle man? Johnny Bench. I’m not getting my hopes up but cool comp.
Final AAA Season: 365 AB, 23 HR, .259/.301/.520, 21 BB, 68 K
First MLB Cup of Coffee: 86 AB, .163/.207/.256, 5 BB, 19 K
Final AAA Season (hopefully): 459 AB, 32 HR, .301/.359/.626, 38 BB, 85 K
First MLB Cup of Coffee: 35 AB, .143/.189/.343, 2 BB, 11 K
Major Caveats: Defense, Bench (19) vs Arenciba (24) in ‘coffee’ seasons
Arencibia will struggle according to Zips, striking out 142 times and posting a sub-par OPS+ of 86. The HR will be present, although projected batting average & on-base percentage end up being the lowest of the three projection systems.
Marcel gives JPA fewer overall AB (196). This systems BB – K rate is drastically different than the others, predicating 18 BB vs 42 K. This is bullish. In limited duty, JPA walked only 2 times vs 11 K last season in 37 AB, along with a substantial minor league track record (96 BB vs 356 K)
With organizational offensive catching alternatives being non-existent (at least until D’Arnaud is ready), I could live with the ZIPs projection for JPA’s 2011 season. Although, I’d obviously prefer Pecota’s outcome, sprinkled in with a little Johnny Bench behind the dish. A guy can dream, can’t he?
What’s your projection for JPA in 2011? Will he over or under perform the sabermetrical projections? Which projection system will be closest to the mark?