Line Sizes Determine House Edge

Shrinking the line shrinks the house edge.

On Sunday I took a brief look at various baseball money line scenario’s, payouts, etc.

Within the article I touched briefly on line spread sizes. Summation from the article: Stay away from line sizes that are larger than 10 points (dime line). Ie -120 Fav, +110 Dog.

I ended up finding some data to back up this obvious point. It comes from historical data from MLB game lines, years 2000-2009. The data was put together by the Wizard of Odds. This is essential knowledge to have when you bet on baseball.


The average ‘house advantage’ on the following line spread size:

Dime Line (10 points): -1.90%

15 Cent Line: -3.01%

20 Cent Line: -4.07%

As these stats show, and rightfully so, the house’s (or sportsbook or casino) advantage grows with an increased line size.

Not exactly earth shattering information about laying down action on the MLB, is it?

Line’s will rarely grow past 10 Cent’s, unless there is a huge ‘dog’ scenario. I can recall off the top of my head a few 20 cent lines at Casino’s in Las Vegas last season. The ranges of the bets were in the neighbourhood of -230 : +210 .

But on the whole a -1.90% house edge on Dime Line’s isn’t killer, depending on the level of action.

More from Matthias Koster
Jose Bautista’s low BABIP and why it doesn’t matter
After finishing dead last in BABIP in 2012 (.215), Jose Bautista came...
Read More
0 replies on “Line Sizes Determine House Edge”