Pecota Prediction Aren’t 100% – Re 2007

Pecota Prediction Aren’t 100% – Re 2007


Before everyone begins taking the Pecota 2008 Predicted standings as the gospel, set in stone standings in 2008, let’s look back at their 2007 prediction set. Below is a screen cap of a forum post that list the 2007 Pecota predicted standings. Please focus on only the first number, which were their first set of predictions.

Pecota Predicted Standings:


Now the Final MLB 2007 Standings


10+ Win Differential

Tampa Bay – Pecota 78 – 94, Actual 66 – 96

Minesota Twins: Pecota 91-71, Actual 79 – 83

Colorado Rockies: Pecota 79 – 83, Acutal 90 – 73

There are a number of 6 – 8 win differences as well. Pecota actually did a pretty good job with their predictions. Let’s get this straight: I’m not knocking the Prospectus for getting some of these predictions wrong, it happens to everybody. Just be sure to use it for what it is, a guideline when analyzing the standings, not as the straight up dope as some people do.

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  • If you want the straight up dope, you come to for the predictions.

  • A lot closer than most, that’s fer sure.

  • leaps

    Does PECOTA do a better job if you just look at pyth W/L’s?