Powerless: Brett Lawrie’s Conclusion to the 2013 Season

lawrie-late-2013

This is a update/continuation of a post from late August:

Three Keys to Brett Lawrie’s Turnaround

(http://mopupduty.com/three-keys-to-brett-lawries-turnaround-082613/)

CliffsNotes: Lawrie turned things around after a poor start to the 2013 season by exhibiting new found patience at the plate. This resulted in a drastically improved triple stat line, as well as K/BB rates and overall awesomeness.

In the above article I promised to come back and look at the remainder of Lawrie’s season at the plate. This small sample includes stats from August 26th until the end of the season.

Aug 26th until end of season (132 PA) stats:

  • .244/.318/.311
  • .287 wOBA
  • 11 BB, 18 K
  • 8.3% BB rate, 13.6% K rate
  • .118 well-hit-average
  • .067 ISO

 

Positives:

Overall quality on base profile, including (percentile vs MLB = lower is better):

  • K Rate 20th percentile
  • BB Rate 42nd percentile
  • Swing Miss Rate 38th percentile
  • Chase Rate 30th percentile

22.7% linedrive rate (he hit .609)

Linedrive Spray Chart: singles in the middle of the diamond, doubles down the lines.

hit-chart

 

Negatives: 

 

Abysmal  .118 overall well-hit-average (8th percentile, amongst the company of players like Adam Eaton & Cesar Hernandez)

0.8% HR/AB Ratio (13th percentile)

254 Foot Average Fly Ball Distance (7th percentile) – Emilio Bonifacio’s avg was 256 over this time.

Driving this point home, here’s a spray chart of Lawrie’s flyballs. Dark blue = outs. When I see lofty, light hit FB’s the other way I automatically think of defensive, half-hearted swings.

hit-chart-fly

This has led to a low .120 batting average on flyballs, including a poor 4% HR/FB rate. His well-hit percentage of .080 on flyballs is terrible; The MLB average of our sample time frame (Aug 26th to the end of the regular season) stood at .233

The real question: Can Lawrie find middle ground? 

With Brett’s D, I could live with his new OBP/Slappy production. But when considering past power output, I want more.

A real concern I have heading into 2014 is the number of ‘chefs in the coaching kitchen’. Brett has played at multiple levels, in multiple organizations over the past five years. And now we have yet another changing of the guard at the Batting Coach position in Toronto.

Ultimately, I have no prediction regarding Lawrie’s 2014. I see a player still trying to find himself at inside & outside of the ‘lines’. Another issue is how will the organization handle him?

Go ahead and add this to the multitude of plot lines for the 2014 campaign :)

Predict Brett Lawrie’s 2014 Stat Line in our Comments Section

 

has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • Aaron

    I’m calling .285/.330/.490 over a breakout season. Ya, I must be a Jays fan.

    • http://www.matthiaskoster.com Matthias Koster

      I could live with that line.

      • http://www.strikespots.com/ Adam

        Me too. 25-30 HR, 80-90 RBI, 6-hole kind of production…works for me.

        • http://www.matthiaskoster.com Matthias Koster

          I would love that kind of HR production. I wonder if he can do it with his new approach. The .311 slg % in this articles small sample makes me question his overall approach (and goals) at the plate. Is he leaning towards OBP or a power game?

  • Drew

    Based on his revised approach we saw at the end of last year, i.e. decent bat control but an inside out, flick it the other way swing, I can see a better average, maybe .285-.290, and a decent walk rate but I don’t see his slugging getting over .450 … and even then it’ll be more doubles and triples than homeruns. Still, while a .285/.340/.400 won’t make him an all-star, add to it gold glove defense and he’s definitely somebody the Jays should want to keep in their lineup for a long time.