Predictions Revisited Part 1

Predictions Revisited Part 1

Here’s an updated look at my pre-season predictions. Unlike most, I’ll give you the bad with the good.

 

Here’s a repost of what I threw up on April 1st, before the season opener. 

Optimistic

  • Octavio Dotel – 30+ saves
    Shane Victorino – 20+ steals
    Jeremy Sowers – 15+ wins
    Jimmy Rollins – Best year of career so far
    Adam Loewn – borderline 2007 all-star
    Jason Bay – 40 HR
    Jacob Ellsbury – in OF around August
    Freddy Sanchez – .320+ average
    Mark Teahan Strong offensive season, 90+ rbi, better statistically in 2007 than Alex Gordon.
    David Bush – EF ratio winner
    Scott Williamson – good value return on $900,000 salary

Pessimistic

  • David Wright – low HR
    Carlos Quentin – Low HR per AB ratio
    Delmon Young – high avg (.285+), low HR & RBI totals due to age, lack of power development.
    Matsuzaka (Additional 4/1/07) 85+ BB’s, 25+ HR allowed in 2007
    Lance Berkman – sub 100 run total
    Gregg Zaun – minimum 15% drop in 2006 numbers
    Cardinals – miss the playoffs
    Reed Johnson – sub .300 BA
    Brandon Leauge – minimum 15% drop in 2006 numbers

 

 

Looking Good:

Lance Berkman will score fewer than 100 runs. He’s on pace for about 90, so anything can happen at this point. Feeling good about this one though…

Cardinals will miss the playoffs. I called this one way back, well before the death, slow start, carpenter injury, etc. This one is beginning to look like a lock.

Quentin low HR per AB totals. Yeah, 1 HR in 66 AB. Runaway prediction here.

Delmon Young will post low HR & RBI totals: Solid prediction so far, at last check Delmon had 4 HR, 14 RBI and check out these stats. He sees the fewest pitches per AB and he swings at 52% of the first pitches per AB, easily the leader in the majors. I used this reasoning to make the prediction, feeling good here.

David Bush will lead the league in EF (walks/HBP). At last check, he had a 2.5 ratio, which would pretty much guarantee him leading the league. Let’s see if he continues plunking batters.

Scott Williamson: He’s been a great addition up to this point. Slated to come off the DL for a tricep strain, Williamson has given the Orioles a 1.80 ERA in six appearances. A great addition? Hell, at $900,000 I’d take 15 appearances of solid relief all season.

David Wright will hit 17 or less HR. I’ve taken some slack for this one, including this gem from a Mets blogger:

I guess using your analysis, Albert Pujols, Mark Teixera, and Travis Hafner, Derek Lee and Ryan Zimmerman will be fantasy busts this year as well, since they’re all off to slow starts this April… Words of wisdom from the Geico caveman, maybe you should do a little research next time.

Way to go pal! Anyways, I made the low HR call way back in November due to his low second half HR total despite having a solid OPS. This pointed to a change in approach/swing etc. Hell, he didn’t struggle, he just didn’t hit the long ball. With 2 HR in 32 games, Wright is on pace for 10 dingers. Another one looking good.

Victorino will steal 20+. This call was made during spring training and at the time it was fairly bold. In 2006 and over 400 AB Shane only stole four bags. But in the spring, he was running all over the place. He already has 13 swipes, so he’ll eclipse the 20 mark before the all-star game.

Mark Teahan has overcome his early season slump and is back on track at this point with a .288 avg and 14 RBI. I’d like to see the power come around and I think he’ll only get better as the season progresses. My main concern is nobody pitching to him due to lack of protection in KC. Time will tell.

Jimmy Rollins is having a breakout season. His newfound plate discipline in the spring was a tip and we used it for this prediction. I assume his .581 SLG will drop, and hell, his BB/SO ratio has dropped like a rock after opening week. Yet his spring and early BB ratios pointed to Rollins seeing the ball and judging the zone better than he has in the past.

Uh Oh:

Jason Bay 40 HR: The logic behind this was simple. LaRoche = protection, protection=Bay gets pitches to hit. Needless to say, LaRoche has sucked this season, nullifying my logic and Bay’s “hittable” pitches. At this point, Jason is on pace to hit only 21 dingers. He can hit a hot streak (holding onto a dream here).

Dotel will save more than 30+. A downright lie!! Injured again, Dotel may come back, he may not, yet at this point it’s a lock that he won’t save 30. Goof.

Jeremy Sowers 15+ Wins. It could still happen, if he’s not sent down. Ah, let’s face it, Sowers has sucked this season. His control just isn’t there yet, with 12 BB in 30 IP (vs 20 BB in 88 last season). The lack of control is also getting him hit. I still have faith in him dominating in a Kenny Rogers kinda way when he gets his control back. 15 wins? Not this year.

Mastuzaka will surrender 85+ BB & 25+ HR. I might go half and half here. In six games he has 15 BB, pro-rate this over 30 starts and he’ll have 75 BB. I’d assume he’ll start three or four games over 30, so this appears to be on track. The HR’s are another manner. Dice-K has been tough when it comes to the long ball, allowing only two at this point. Half and half.

Kouzmanoff will win ROY. This one’s gonna be tough at this point. Hitting barely over .100, Kevin has been pulled numerous times for pinch hitters so far this season. I’d expect a demotion to AAA sometime soon, which I’d view as a positive. I’m not ready to write this one off yet, so here’s hoping for a hot second half.

Injury Related/Other Factors:

Adam Loewen will be the best Canadian pitcher: It wasn’t looking too pretty to begin with but if you watched his appearances (I myself had seen two) he had the ability to pitch out of the trouble he created with his walks. His ERA of 3.20 isn’t the worst thing in the world, although he was a killer on the Orioles bullpen.

Freddy Sanchez over .320. After being injuried, Sanchez is still working his way back. I count on a burst that will rise his average sooner or later. Next update I’ll have a better grip on his production.

Reed Johnson/Gregg Zaun/Brandon League will post number 15%+ lower than last season:

Both Reed and Gregg feel into the injury trap early, so we’ll come back to this prediction later in the season. League may be down for the count according to some reports and even if he comes back his numbers will probably have a high variance.

Ellsbury up in August. Well, it isn’t august yet.

More from Matthias Koster
MP3 Interview on Global Baseball Expansion
MP3 Interview on Global Baseball Expansion   What a scoop! Well, not really,...
Read More
2 replies on “Predictions Revisited Part 1”
  1. says: Kman

    Thank you sir. Bold was the way to go on these calls. No one wants to read “Howard will hit 40+ HR, or Crawford will steal 50 bases” type of predictions.

Comments are closed.