Comparing 2011 Toronto Blue Jays actual numbers vs pre-season sabermetric projections.
Please don’t shoot the messenger
Please take these numbers with a grain of salt. The purpose of this article is simply to showcase how well the projection models (Pecota & ZIPS) predicted the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays. This article was not created to question the validity of the models.
Guide:
* ACT = Actual stats, BP = Baseball Prospectus, ZIPS = ZIPS
* Average mean is used for Pecota (BP) numbers
* VORP is BP’s in-house replacement level system. It is based upon position and is based only upon offensive output. ZIPS projections obviously do not include VORP
Offensive Projections
Notes:
* I estimated PA for ZIPS (adding together AB + BB). I’m likely missing a few HBP here and there
* Due to switching leagues, I’ve left out Aaron Hill, Rasmus, Patterson
* Encarncion was left off the initial ZIPS projections, as he was not with the club at the time of the pre-season publication
* Players must have 200+ PA in a Jays uniform, although I made an exception for Lawrie. Brett’s ZIPS projections are based upon the NL & Milwaukee.
| Last Name | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | VORP |
| Arencibia ACT | 486 | 23 | 0.219 | 0.282 | 0.438 | 19.4 |
| Arencibia BP | 450 | 23 | 0.255 | 0.291 | 0.484 | 19.1 |
| Arencibia ZIPS | 560 | 25 | 0.23 | 0.279 | 0.432 | na |
| Bautista ACT | 655 | 43 | 0.302 | 0.447 | 0.608 | 86.4 |
| Bautista BP | 658 | 34 | 0.249 | 0.346 | 0.491 | 33.2 |
| Bautista ZIPS | 526 | 32 | 0.249 | 0.362 | 0.524 | na |
| Davis ACT | 338 | 1 | 0.237 | 0.273 | 0.35 | 3.8 |
| Davis BP | 600 | 7 | 0.27 | 0.314 | 0.378 | 6.7 |
| Davis ZIPS | 457 | 6 | 0.273 | 0.318 | 0.38 | na |
| Encarnacion ACT | 530 | 17 | 0.272 | 0.334 | 0.453 | 15.1 |
| Encarnacion BP | 615 | 28 | 0.257 | 0.333 | 0.468 | 29.4 |
| Escobar ACT | 590 | 11 | 0.29 | 0.369 | 0.413 | 40.6 |
| Escobar BP | 650 | 7 | 0.282 | 0.35 | 0.399 | 28.6 |
| Escobar ZIPS | 589 | 11 | 0.268 | 0.345 | 0.381 | na |
| Lawrie ACT | 171 | 9 | 0.293 | 0.373 | 0.58 | 18.8 |
| Lawrie BP | 538 | 11 | 0.253 | 0.294 | 0.394 | 1.7 |
| Lawrie ZIPS | 687 | 11 | 0.254 | 0.309 | 0.4 | na |
| Lind ACT | 542 | 26 | 0.251 | 0.295 | 0.439 | 12 |
| Lind BP | 644 | 21 | 0.266 | 0.317 | 0.468 | 14.3 |
| Lind ZIPS | 622 | 25 | 0.269 | 0.321 | 0.471 | na |
| McCoy ACT | 228 | 2 | 0.198 | 0.291 | 0.227 | 2.5 |
| McCoy BP | 450 | 6 | 0.263 | 0.344 | 0.368 | 12.3 |
| McCoy ZIPS | 392 | 4 | 0.231 | 0.312 | 0.317 | na |
| Snider ACT | 202 | 3 | 0.225 | 0.269 | 0.348 | -2 |
| Snider BP | 513 | 22 | 0.253 | 0.312 | 0.455 | 11.1 |
| Snider ZIPS | 509 | 22 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.465 | na |
| Thames ACT | 394 | 12 | 0.262 | 0.313 | 0.456 | 16.3 |
| Thames BP | 450 | 17 | 0.252 | 0.311 | 0.441 | 7.6 |
| Thames ZIPS | 630 | 20 | 0.236 | 0.307 | 0.402 | na |
Best Prediction: ZIPS: JP Arencibia
Eerily close projection from ZIPS. They narrowly missed by only 2 HR, .11 points of batting average, .003 points of OBP and .006 of SLG. BP also did a good job on JPA, nailing his HR number and almost hitting their VORP estimate.
Underachiever: Travis Snider
Both systems predicted a solid season from Travis, with a line of .256/.317/.460 between BP & ZIPS. His overall line of .225/.269/.348 feel short.
Overachiever: Jose Bautista
The projection models aren’t equipped to handle sudden surge players like Jose. Bautista beat his BP OBP estimate by over .100 points. His BA of .302 was also over .50 points higher than both systems projections of .249.
Near Misses: BP came close on both Eric Thames & Edwin Encarnacion.
Pitching Projections
Notes:
* Innings tend to be off for starters.
* Pitchers not spending the entire season in TOR were omitted
* Rauch ZIPS is from the Twins, Francisco’s is from the Rangers, Villanueava is from Brewers
* Alvarez has no ZIPS
| Pitcher | IP | H | HR | BB | K | ERA | VORP |
| Alvarez ACT | 63.2 | 64 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 3.53 | 9 |
| Alvarez BP | 89 | 114 | 14 | 33 | 37 | 6.18 | -1.5 |
| Camp ACT | 66.1 | 79 | 3 | 22 | 32 | 4.21 | -1.6 |
| Camp BP | 80 | 83 | 10 | 24 | 59 | 4.25 | 2.1 |
| Camp ZIPS | 64.1 | 65 | 7 | 19 | 47 | 4.06 | na |
| Cecil ACT | 123.2 | 122 | 22 | 42 | 87 | 4.73 | 7.1 |
| Cecil BP | 175 | 182 | 22 | 62 | 113 | 4.42 | 24.7 |
| Cecil ZIPS | 155 | 167 | 18 | 57 | 115 | 4.65 | na |
| Drabek ACT | 78.2 | 87 | 10 | 55 | 51 | 6.06 | -2.3 |
| Drabek BP | 165 | 170 | 23 | 76 | 114 | 4.87 | 15.1 |
| Drabek ZIPS | 157.2 | 167 | 18 | 81 | 109 | 4.97 | na |
| Francisco ACT | 50.2 | 49 | 7 | 18 | 53 | 3.55 | 6.9 |
| Francisco BP | 60 | 51 | 7 | 22 | 68 | 3.27 | 8.9 |
| Francisco ZIPS | 55.1 | 46 | 6 | 19 | 66 | 3.42 | na |
| Janssen ACT | 55.2 | 47 | 2 | 14 | 53 | 2.26 | 9.4 |
| Janssen BP | 66 | 70 | 8 | 19 | 46 | 4.37 | 0.7 |
| Janssen ZIPS | 65.2 | 69 | 7 | 21 | 52 | 4.25 | na |
| Litsch ACT | 75 | 69 | 10 | 28 | 66 | 4.44 | 3.4 |
| Litsch BP | 115 | 126 | 17 | 29 | 62 | 4.67 | 10 |
| Litsch ZIPS | 89.2 | 103 | 13 | 24 | 49 | 5.12 | na |
| Morrow ACT | 173.1 | 157 | 20 | 64 | 196 | 4.78 | 34.2 |
| Morrow BP | 176 | 158 | 19 | 88 | 185 | 4.05 | 32.6 |
| Morrow ZIPS | 149.1 | 133 | 16 | 72 | 162 | 4.14 | na |
| Rauch ACT | 52 | 56 | 11 | 14 | 36 | 4.85 | 0.8 |
| Rauch BP | 75 | 75 | 9 | 21 | 58 | 3.79 | 6.2 |
| Rauch ZIPS | 62.1 | 62 | 6 | 17 | 52 | 3.75 | na |
| Romero ACT | 225 | 176 | 26 | 80 | 178 | 2.92 | 24.1 |
| Romero BP | 195 | 204 | 23 | 85 | 149 | 4.72 | 19.4 |
| Romero ZIPS | 212.2 | 210 | 20 | 87 | 180 | 4.15 | na |
| Villanueava ACT | 107 | 103 | 11 | 32 | 68 | 4.14 | 12.7 |
| Villanueva BP | 116 | 113 | 18 | 41 | 103 | 4.23 | 7.6 |
| Villanueva ZIPS | 89.1 | 84 | 12 | 33 | 91 | 4.23 | na |
Best Projection: Tie: Romero ZIPS, Morrow BP
While both models are off in terms of ERA (with Romero’s actual ERA being lower and Morrow’s being higher), both models came close on IP and HR and are in the ballpark in K + BB.
Underachiever: Kyle Drabek
It should be noted that the innings are way off for Drabek’s projections. On average, Kyle was expected to allow about a hit per inning and have a slightly positive K/BB ratio. In the real world he allowed well over a hit per inning and walked more than he struck out.
Overachiever: Casey Janssen
Janssen overachieved on both models, limiting hits and allowing only 2 HR all season
