Production vs Prediction: Final 2011 Blue Jays Results

Comparing 2011 Toronto Blue Jays actual numbers vs pre-season sabermetric projections.

Please don’t shoot the messenger 

Please take these numbers with a grain of salt. The purpose of this article is simply to showcase how well the projection models (Pecota & ZIPS) predicted the 2011 Toronto Blue Jays. This article was not created to question the validity of the models.

Guide:

* ACT = Actual stats, BP = Baseball Prospectus, ZIPS = ZIPS

* Average mean is used for Pecota (BP) numbers

* VORP is BP’s in-house replacement level system. It is based upon position and is based only upon offensive output. ZIPS projections obviously do not include VORP

 

Offensive Projections

Notes:

* I estimated PA for ZIPS (adding together AB + BB). I’m likely missing a few HBP here and there

* Due to switching leagues, I’ve left out Aaron Hill, Rasmus, Patterson

* Encarncion was left off the initial ZIPS projections, as he was not with the club at the time of the pre-season publication

* Players must have 200+ PA in a Jays uniform, although I made an exception for Lawrie. Brett’s ZIPS projections are based upon the NL & Milwaukee.

Last Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG VORP
Arencibia ACT 486 23 0.219 0.282 0.438 19.4
Arencibia BP 450 23 0.255 0.291 0.484 19.1
Arencibia ZIPS 560 25 0.23 0.279 0.432 na
Bautista ACT 655 43 0.302 0.447 0.608 86.4
Bautista BP 658 34 0.249 0.346 0.491 33.2
Bautista ZIPS 526 32 0.249 0.362 0.524 na
Davis ACT 338 1 0.237 0.273 0.35 3.8
Davis BP 600 7 0.27 0.314 0.378 6.7
Davis ZIPS 457 6 0.273 0.318 0.38 na
Encarnacion ACT 530 17 0.272 0.334 0.453 15.1
Encarnacion BP 615 28 0.257 0.333 0.468 29.4
Escobar ACT 590 11 0.29 0.369 0.413 40.6
Escobar BP 650 7 0.282 0.35 0.399 28.6
Escobar ZIPS 589 11 0.268 0.345 0.381 na
Lawrie ACT 171 9 0.293 0.373 0.58 18.8
Lawrie BP 538 11 0.253 0.294 0.394 1.7
Lawrie ZIPS 687 11 0.254 0.309 0.4 na
Lind ACT 542 26 0.251 0.295 0.439 12
Lind BP 644 21 0.266 0.317 0.468 14.3
Lind ZIPS 622 25 0.269 0.321 0.471 na
McCoy ACT 228 2 0.198 0.291 0.227 2.5
McCoy BP 450 6 0.263 0.344 0.368 12.3
McCoy ZIPS 392 4 0.231 0.312 0.317 na
Snider ACT 202 3 0.225 0.269 0.348 -2
Snider BP 513 22 0.253 0.312 0.455 11.1
Snider ZIPS 509 22 0.26 0.32 0.465 na
Thames ACT 394 12 0.262 0.313 0.456 16.3
Thames BP 450 17 0.252 0.311 0.441 7.6
Thames ZIPS 630 20 0.236 0.307 0.402 na 

 

Best Prediction: ZIPS: JP Arencibia

Eerily close projection from ZIPS. They narrowly missed by only 2 HR, .11 points of batting average, .003 points of OBP and .006 of SLG. BP also did a good job on JPA, nailing his HR number and almost hitting their VORP estimate.

Underachiever: Travis Snider

Both systems predicted a solid season from Travis, with a line of .256/.317/.460 between BP & ZIPS. His overall line of .225/.269/.348 feel short.

Overachiever: Jose Bautista

The projection models aren’t equipped to handle sudden surge players like Jose. Bautista beat his BP OBP estimate by over .100 points. His BA of .302 was also over .50 points higher than both systems projections of .249.

Near Misses: BP came close on both Eric Thames & Edwin Encarnacion.

Pitching Projections

Notes:

* Innings tend to be off for starters.

* Pitchers not spending the entire season in TOR were omitted

* Rauch ZIPS is from the Twins, Francisco’s is from the Rangers, Villanueava is from Brewers

* Alvarez has no ZIPS

Pitcher IP H HR BB K ERA VORP
Alvarez ACT 63.2 64 8 8 40 3.53 9
Alvarez BP 89 114 14 33 37 6.18 -1.5
Camp ACT 66.1 79 3 22 32 4.21 -1.6
Camp BP 80 83 10 24 59 4.25 2.1
Camp ZIPS 64.1 65 7 19 47 4.06 na
Cecil ACT 123.2 122 22 42 87 4.73 7.1
Cecil BP 175 182 22 62 113 4.42 24.7
Cecil ZIPS 155 167 18 57 115 4.65 na
Drabek ACT 78.2 87 10 55 51 6.06 -2.3
Drabek BP 165 170 23 76 114 4.87 15.1
Drabek ZIPS 157.2 167 18 81 109 4.97 na
Francisco ACT 50.2 49 7 18 53 3.55 6.9
Francisco BP 60 51 7 22 68 3.27 8.9
Francisco ZIPS 55.1 46 6 19 66 3.42 na
Janssen ACT 55.2 47 2 14 53 2.26 9.4
Janssen BP 66 70 8 19 46 4.37 0.7
Janssen ZIPS 65.2 69 7 21 52 4.25 na
Litsch ACT 75 69 10 28 66 4.44 3.4
Litsch BP 115 126 17 29 62 4.67 10
Litsch ZIPS 89.2 103 13 24 49 5.12 na
Morrow ACT 173.1 157 20 64 196 4.78 34.2
Morrow BP 176 158 19 88 185 4.05 32.6
Morrow ZIPS 149.1 133 16 72 162 4.14 na
Rauch ACT 52 56 11 14 36 4.85 0.8
Rauch BP 75 75 9 21 58 3.79 6.2
Rauch ZIPS 62.1 62 6 17 52 3.75 na
Romero ACT 225 176 26 80 178 2.92 24.1
Romero BP 195 204 23 85 149 4.72 19.4
Romero ZIPS 212.2 210 20 87 180 4.15 na
Villanueava ACT 107 103 11 32 68 4.14 12.7
Villanueva BP 116 113 18 41 103 4.23 7.6
Villanueva ZIPS 89.1 84 12 33 91 4.23 na

 

Best Projection: Tie: Romero ZIPS, Morrow BP

While both models are off in terms of ERA (with Romero’s actual ERA being lower and Morrow’s being higher), both models came close on IP and HR and are in the ballpark in K + BB.

Underachiever: Kyle Drabek

It should be noted that the innings are way off for Drabek’s projections. On average, Kyle was expected to allow about a hit per inning and have a slightly positive K/BB ratio. In the real world he allowed well over a hit per inning and walked more than he struck out.

Overachiever: Casey Janssen

Janssen overachieved on both models, limiting hits and allowing only 2 HR all season

 

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