The Jays 2009 starting rotation will induce far fewer ground balls vs the 2008 starting five.

Gone (or likely low 2009 IP)

A.J Burnett (48.5%)

Shaun Marcum (43.1%)

Dustin McGowan (41.4%)

Replacements (for the time being)

David Purcey (31.8%)

Scott Richmond (36%)

Ricky Romero (51% milb)

Romero’s 51% milb GB percentage likely isn’t enough to offset the huge hole left by A.J. Burnett and his 221 IP. Purcey in the #2 spot alone should drop the teams GB total. Cecil is a groundball machine (59.1%), although it remains to be seen how many IP he’ll receive in 2009. I think this change in starting staff GB ratio could bring up the Jays team ERA, as the value of a Fly Ball (FB) is about .10 runs higher than the value of groundball. Add in the skill level of Toronto’s infield defensively vs the outfield and this number could be even higher.