Random Roy Halladay to Philly Thoughts

Before we get going you might want to check out the fresh ESPN video from 11am this morning:

Quote for Insider

If the Jays know they won’t be able to re-sign Halladay after the 2010 season — and the guess here is that Halladay already has indicated to the Jays, respectfully and without any demands, that he won’t stick around if the team won’t spend money — they should swallow hard and make the best deal they can right now. Most likely, that will be with the Phillies.

At this point it appears (if one is to trust rumors) that the Jays may only be able to obtain one or two from the following group: Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown. Even a suspect middle of the rotation starter such as AJ Happ’s name has been thrown about. From my perspective Happ doesn’t interest me in the least (we have enough middle of the rotation lefties as it is).

What are we really taking about here. If the market is tightening how many of the ‘big three’ will the Jays be able to obtain for Doc?

All three have played themselves into this seasons Top 100 prospect list. Two are outfielders. Do we really need another outfielder? (based on the assumption that Lind, Wells and Rios are staying put) Ok, maybe we could use one more bat but both Taylor and Brown would be overkill. Still, this is a nice list. Yet reports say that we may get only one of these prospects, plus some lower-tier players

Doing nothing

If the Jays do nothing and end up losing Doc in 2010, he will surely be a Type A free agent. If the team that ends up signing Doc in the 2010 off-season is in the top half of the league standings (which is almost a lock for the Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox of the world) the Jays will receive that respective teams first round pick and a supplemental first-rounder.

Back in 2007 the Jays drafted Arencibia in the first round (21st) and Cecil in the supplemental portion. Is losing Doc for a year and a half really worth an extra prospect vs what could be obtained in the draft? Are we even a lock to get two of the above three Phillie farm hands? If not trading a year and a half of Doc (which is worth about 7 wins per season above an average pitcher) just isn’t worth it.

Spifficus

July 22, 2009 at 1:54 am

The talking heads like to keep throwing around the Santana comparison, but that really was a combination of events, and a rookie GM earning his stripes the hard way. If we can go back to that scenario, there were factors at play that don’t seem to be here:

First, Santana and the twins had reached an impasse on a contract extension (by a year and over $30), so unless something fundamentally changed, he was definitely a goner after a year. Also, this established the potential price of an extension with a new club at 6y/$126MM.

Second, Bill Smith waited until most of his market had moved on. He had him out there for 3 1/2 months. Past the GM meetings, past the winter meetings, past the Christmas rush, past the Boxing Day sales, past the New Year, right up before pitchers and catchers were to report. The Angels were probably out of elite-level money when they signed Hunter. He let potential surprise teams find alternatives in Bedard, Kuroda, and Willis / Cabrera. From the looks of it, he had a framework hammered out with Boston for much of December (Lester, Masterson, Lowrie and Crisp if you believe the reports. Wow. I wonder what a similar package today would be in the Halladay market.), but was trying to leverage that against the Yankees, who didn’t bite. They had resigned Pettitte, so this may have affected their urgency a bit. Basically, it looked like he either got screwed dicking around on spare parts, tried to leverage a leverage of a leverage and lost the game of musical chairs, or he has a 78 IQ.

Third, he had a full no-trade clause and knew how to use it. This killed whatever leverage Smith had left in 2 ways. The team would first have to agree to an extension with Santana before getting him. This wasn’t an issue for the 3 teams left in the bidding, but it probably took out any wild cards like Colorado, Texas or Milwaukee to at least help drive up the bidding. Also, Santana apparently made it clear he would veto any in-season trade, preventing any opportunity to deal him at the deadline.

Sorry to ramble on about this, but this comparison’s been floated around like it’s gospel. “Better trade him now JP, or else you’ll end up with a bag of majik beans and Carlos Gomez!” Of course, rival execs are going to bring this up as the first thing out of their mouth – they wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t. It’d take a lot of hard work for JP to paint himself into the same corner Bill Smith did, tho. He has 3 cracks to deal him – now, the winter, and next deadline. If he doesn’t like what he’s offered now, he can always pick up his ball and go home until December, and if GMs still aren’t playing nice, he can give them another 6 months to stew while he sees if he can get lucky with the current cast.

Unless there’s a hidden marching order to cut tens of millions of dollars from the payroll, JP has the leverage he needs to get the right deal.

4 replies on “Random Roy Halladay to Philly Thoughts”

says: eyebleaf

July 20, 2009 at 1:53 pm

Interesting post, brother.

I’m with you; fuck it, let’s keep him.

I’d rather take my chances one some Cinderella type shit.
says: bkblades

July 20, 2009 at 4:50 pm

The Type A free agency is an important point that a lot of people tend to miss. The Blue Jays will automatically get two first round prospects when he signs elsewhere, so why should the Jays just deal him haphazardly for lower-tier prospects? It doesn’t make sense.
says: Spifficus

July 22, 2009 at 1:54 am

The talking heads like to keep throwing around the Santana comparison, but that really was a combination of events, and a rookie GM earning his stripes the hard way. If we can go back to that scenario, there were factors at play that don’t seem to be here:

First, Santana and the twins had reached an impasse on a contract extension (by a year and over $30), so unless something fundamentally changed, he was definitely a goner after a year. Also, this established the potential price of an extension with a new club at 6y/$126MM.

Second, Bill Smith waited until most of his market had moved on. He had him out there for 3 1/2 months. Past the GM meetings, past the winter meetings, past the Christmas rush, past the Boxing Day sales, past the New Year, right up before pitchers and catchers were to report. The Angels were probably out of elite-level money when they signed Hunter. He let potential surprise teams find alternatives in Bedard, Kuroda, and Willis / Cabrera. From the looks of it, he had a framework hammered out with Boston for much of December (Lester, Masterson, Lowrie and Crisp if you believe the reports. Wow. I wonder what a similar package today would be in the Halladay market.), but was trying to leverage that against the Yankees, who didn’t bite. They had resigned Pettitte, so this may have affected their urgency a bit. Basically, it looked like he either got screwed dicking around on spare parts, tried to leverage a leverage of a leverage and lost the game of musical chairs, or he has a 78 IQ.

Third, he had a full no-trade clause and knew how to use it. This killed whatever leverage Smith had left in 2 ways. The team would first have to agree to an extension with Santana before getting him. This wasn’t an issue for the 3 teams left in the bidding, but it probably took out any wild cards like Colorado, Texas or Milwaukee to at least help drive up the bidding. Also, Santana apparently made it clear he would veto any in-season trade, preventing any opportunity to deal him at the deadline.

Sorry to ramble on about this, but this comparison’s been floated around like it’s gospel. “Better trade him now JP, or else you’ll end up with a bag of majik beans and Carlos Gomez!” Of course, rival execs are going to bring this up as the first thing out of their mouth – they wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t. It’d take a lot of hard work for JP to paint himself into the same corner Bill Smith did, tho. He has 3 cracks to deal him – now, the winter, and next deadline. If he doesn’t like what he’s offered now, he can always pick up his ball and go home until December, and if GMs still aren’t playing nice, he can give them another 6 months to stew while he sees if he can get lucky with the current cast.

Unless there’s a hidden marching order to cut tens of millions of dollars from the payroll, JP has the leverage he needs to get the right deal.
says: Mark

July 22, 2009 at 8:58 am

With prospects I don’t think you should ever worry about stock piling positions. Worse comes to worse you can trade a position where you have a surplus. The Braves for example had two catchers two summers ago that were capable of playing everyday. They traded Saltalamachia in a package that got Teixeira. One of the players in the proposed deal is in Single A so a lot can happen by the time he’s ready (injury, diminished skills, etc.)