Rants & Observations: April 14th, 2007

 
This time around: Felix Hernandez is going to get injured at this rate, Iwamura vs Santana, Teahen needs to make some contact, Dmitri Young is fat, & more.

 
The Indians got one hell of a discount on Jake Westbrook, re-upping for 3 years at $33 million. Say what you will about Jake, but he’s consistently around 4.25 with 15 wins. I’d expect that to keep, and the Indians have locked in a 2008 rotation of CC, Sowers (2.08 ERA), Westbrook, Adam Miller, & probably Carmona or Lee.

Does anyone remember my created stat, Runs on Base? If not, you can check it out by clicking that link. Watching the Nationals on TBS the other night, I was surprised just how fat & slow Dmitri Young has gotten. And he’s always been fat & slow. Now he makes John Kruk look thin. I predict that he’ll be the league leader in ROB. I don’t know why they’d put this guy in the middle of the lineup. If he doesn’t hit the long ball, he’s going to kill you on the base paths.

Iwamura vs Santana last night gave me even more respect for Akinori. Santana is going to dominate, night in and night out. Iwamura knows this. So he works an 10 pitch walk in the 5th (he scored later in the inning). A smart player realizes that a long, 8+ pitch AB is extremely valuable in the grand scheme of a ballgame when facing a legit #1 like Johan. The additional 6 pitches over the MLB average plate appearance (just a shade under 4 per AB) will get Johan out of the game sooner. I know some will belittle this fact as inconsequential but it all adds up at the end of a game.

I’m getting concerned that Teahen is walking too much. This was his problem last season. When he’s overly selective, he doesn’t hit well. His 8 BB, 12 K line needs to turn around if he’s going to be successful. To put things in perspective, he’s walking or striking out in 40% of his Abs. In his torrid (.974 OPS) 2nd half off 2006 this same rate was 24.9%. Put it in play Mark!

Like everyone else, I think Felix Hernandez is good. But unlike everyone else, I’m starting to get worried as hell. I know it’s early, but the fact is he’s still a kid and his innings need to be curbed. In both of his 2007 starts, he has thrown 111 pitches. It’s tough to take a guy out when he’s dominating but this can’t continue or he may be in big
DL trouble.