Toronto Blue Jays 2008 Record Prediction
There is much hope in the blogosphere for the Jays in 2008. Can they finally earn a playoff spot?
Brief Overview:
Is the payroll set at the $100 million mark? I think the lack of off-season $$$ acquisitions confirms this. The farm system is relatively weak on mlb replacement talent and is also thin for trading purposes. The core of the team is still prone to injuries, with Rolen, Burnett, Doc, Thomas, Zaun & Ryan all spending significant time on the DL over the past few seasons.
Regression to Mean
The pitching won’t produce at 2007 levels as well. If one thinks back to 2006, the offense had a great season, with many players having stronger than expected years (Reed Johnson is a perfect example) with unsustainable BABIP numbers. Simply put the Jays batters found more holes in 2006. In 2007 the luck ran out and they reverted back to average BABIP production. In 2007 we turn around and see the same thing, this time in the pitching department. Using a simply stat such as FIP (fielder independent ERA) we find Marcum (4.13 ERA vs 5.05) and Litsch (3.81 ERA vs 5.23) were rather lucky in their output.
Last season the Jays team as a whole had the second highest positive differential for ERA vs FIP at +0.35. Here are AL team stats:
One has to figure in two factors could have squeezed this number, although luck is certainly an issue. The defense on John McDonald would have helped keep runners off base, which is a positive as the Jays were at the AL average of 1.0 HR allowed per game. Secondly the bullpen had career years from four different pitchers in Accardo, Janssen, Downs and Wolfe. Janssen is a non-factor and we can’t really trust the Jays brass on the status of BJ Ryan. League is a toss up, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Downs and Accardo raise up there ERAs to at least 2.75. Wolfe is also a wild-card. Bottom line, I don’t think the pen will perform at 2007 levels. All of this adds up to the Jays, at the minimum, finding a regression to the league mean ERA vs FIP ratio and thus a rise in total runs allowed.
Unbalanced Schedule
The Jays are set to play division rivals 18 times each in 2007. This is a constant excuse of the Toronto brass & media as to why the team can’t get over the hump. I won’t touch on that here. What’s the point? It is what it is and bitching about it isn’t going to change a thing. Playing the Orioles 18 gives the Jays a head start in the wild card race. But we have to remember that the Yankees & Red Sox are also afforded this luxury. The Rays should present more of a challenge, as the addition of Barlett at short and the shifting of Iwamura to 2nd makes the Rays a far better defensive ballclub. Last season the Rays easily had the worst fielding plus/minus ratio in the majors at -141. On the other hand, the Jays easily had the top +/-, which will be hurt by the Eckstein acquisition and the poor performance of Scutaro at 3rd (.906 fielding percentage at the hot corner in 2007, RZR of .603 vs .706 by Glaus) when filling in for the often injured Rolen.
The Rays will also have an improved rotation by the midway point in the season. This leaves us with the Sox & Yankees. A .500+ record against these two is a must (the Jays were under .500 against these two last season). Of bigger concern is the Jays play outside of the division.
They will need to improve on this slightly above .500 winning percentage outside of the East. In 2007 the Jays were essentially a .500 ballclub.
The 2008 Projected Record
With a regression to average pitching component ERA vs actual ERA, along with thin replacement depth, and a roster of injury suspect players, I don’t see the Jays improving much upon their 2007 record.
Toronto Blue Jays 2008 Projected Record: 82 – 80
805 Runs scored 705 runs allowed
90-72
We need some luck eh.
Not sure where you are getting those numbers from. Prediction? 2007 Toronto Blue Jays runs were 753 – 699, and the Jays finished below the pythagorean record.
This season I expect the runs allowed to increase. Every team in the AL East had a record below their pythagorean prediction in 2007.
this is an impressive overview. Are you going to do one for each team? However, I must bring up a point that I always do when someone mentions the strength of the 2006 Jays. Their offense was middle of the pack. Their pitching in both the last two season found ways to keep the team competitive. In 2006 if you subract one player (Towers’ 12 starts) the Jays team ERA goes from 4.37 down to 4.18!
Personally I dislike the imbalanced schedule but not because of fairness. Every divison has dregs and studs. In the last 3 seaons the Jays are a total of 3 games below .500 vs the Yanks+RSox! We see that good teams will typically play .500 ball vs each other. The Jays have fared much worse vs TBD and Balt and vs NL teams that the NYY and Sox have done. In regards to the WC race, WC competitors such as Det, Cleve, Sea, LAA all have thud teams to beat up on in KC and Tex. In 2007 the Jays also played .500 ball vs team below them in their div. In 2006, they had a significant advantage over Balt+TBD and this was reflected in the Jays best year in a decade.
Sparky Anderson said it best “In 162 games there are 54 you are going to win, 54 you are going to lose and 54 that are going to decide if you are a pennant winner or a last place club.” So in those 54 games the Jays have to beat up on teams below them in the standings.
I am sitting here wanting to slit my wrists. Again the moron schedulers at MLB are booking home openers in New York and Detroit where it is raining and freezing cold while teams like Tampa, Texas and the LAA Angels are on the road.
Alot nicer in Detroit on 31 Mar this year than the snowstorm last year. AL schedulers are brilliant. Their predictons are impeccable as they picked nice days in the North to play games….gag.
Recorded temperature in Cleveland today was higher than at Dodger Stadium.