Trading Roy Halladay and Long-Term Plans

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Rumors are swirling all over the place regarding the Jays dealing Doc Halladay. The front page of ESPN Baseball is a Halladay watch zone, so I won’t go into rumors here. Instead, let’s look at some of the viable options going forward.

I find it very difficult to imagine a world in which the Jays can compete in 2010 without Halladay, not to mention the soon to be free agent Marco Scutaro.

Once again J.P. appears to be trying to win now and win later at the same time. This results in our yearly .500 level clubs that don’t go anywhere. One of two scenarios need to be followed for the Jays to make the playoffs in the foreseeable future:

1. The Jays need to get aggressive for a 2010 playoff run. Obviously this plan would necessitate keeping Doc, resigning Scutaro and adding a legitimate DH bat (with Lind shifting to LF). Maybe even trade out some minor league prospects for short-term help.

OR

2. Reboot. A full reboot, not the half-ass type we’ve seen of late. Trade Halladay, move Scutaro before the deadline, see what the market is for Rolen (contract up in 2010), etc. Bring in some high A, AA type prospects that will be ready to compete in 2011 and beyond.

For the record I’m not a fan of dealing Halladay. But if he does have to go, move out any other short term assets shortly after. Clearly the message and the reality will be that the Jays aren’t making the playoffs anytime soon without Doc. Adjust the roster accordingly. And if you keep him man up and add some assets of the non-Dellucci variety to the ballclub.

has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • http://www.sportsandthecity.com eyebleaf

    I know the temptation out there is to shit all over J.P., but what can he do with an $80 million payroll? Even if Rogers ups it to $100 million, can he re-sign Doc, and field a competitive team? Unless Rogers gives him what he needs – at least $120 million, IMO – I don’t think we can blame Ricciardi for, if he does, trading Doc. He’ll simply be left with no choice.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Callum

    The Jays trading Halladay is on par with the Orioles trading Ripken. It would be a complete and utter atrocity and I will no longer be a Jays fan should it take place.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Kman

    Doc is Toronto baseball, no arguments there.

    What is the Tampa payroll? I can’t see it being much more than $80 million, even less than that. Last season it had to be in the $60′s or $70′s. Teams can compete with lower payroll’s. J.P. has gotten himself into this situation with the backloaded contracts to Ryan and Wells.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Kman

    Just checked. 2008 Rays opening day payroll was $43 million. 2009 Rays opening day payroll was $63 million. Jays 2008 was $97 million, 2009 was $80. Tampa seems to be doing fine with less money.

  • http://www.sportsandthecity.com eyebleaf

    How many of those Tampa contracts are because of their guys are so damn young? Who’s the ace on that staff? B.J. Upton makes $475,000. Wait until he’s eligible for a raise.

    I will admit, Pena is a bargain at $8 million.

    James Shields: $1.5 million.

    I don’t know. But I’m not going to renounce my Jays fandom if Doc is traded. He’s got a no-trade. It’s his choice to stay; it’s his choice to sign an extension.

    At the end of the day, if Rogers opened up the purse strings, this team could be more competitive.

    I’m loathe to bring the Rays into this argument because they sucked FOREVER, and now, finally, on the strength of their youth, and contracts correlating to said youth, are playing well.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Kman

    Good point Eyebleaf, the team did suck for a long time and benefited from long-term contracts. That’s kinda what I’d like the Jays to do. Either go for broke in 2010 or work the team down to a Rays like roster with the ability to lock up good players on the cheap. J.P. (or whomever is responsible) is trying to do both, bring in veterans with heavy contracts (via trade or free agency) and sprinkle in a few prospects here and there. That plan can work for teams with large payrolls (and payroll allowances). For a mid-tier team like the Jays in the AL East it’s tough to construct a winning roster based upon those principals.

  • http://colinrabyniuk.wordpress.com colin

    Can we all remember that JP was brought on to build a moneyball team? that he said he was able to cut payroll and build a winner at the same time?

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Callum

    Yes we remember that. Then he said “I give up, I can’t compete with the Red Sox and Yankees”. So Rogers substantially increased payroll and he pissed it all away on Ryan, Wells, Rios.

  • http://www.mopupduty.com Callum

    and Frank Thomas.

  • http://www.sportsandthecity.com eyebleaf

    Colin, I have NO IDEA what you’re talking about.

  • http://fantasybaseballhotstove.blogspot.com Mark

    Granted I don’t consider myself a fan at all of the Jays, but speaking as a third party observer I think the best move is to trade Halladay and get a really good prospect to replace him plus some lesser prospects.

    1. If you want to go for everything in 2010 or 2009 you have to compete with the Rays, Yanks and Sox still. I don’t think any of those teams are going away although you can point out little flaws with all of them it’s still the best division in baseball on paper.

    2. The Sox and Yankees are going to be good at the rate things are going in 2011, 2012, 2013, etc. because of the economic model of baseball right now. That being said, the best way to compete with them is the model that’s been proven – Tampa’s model. Total rebuilding. It means having a .380 winning percentage rather than .480 or .500.

    3. Halladay has been awesome. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, which is exactly why he should be traded now. Think about it from the Diamondbacks perspective. Brandon Webb was extremely reliable for several seasons. If they traded him last winter, fans would have rioted in much the same way fans on this site are claiming to be unhappy if Halladay gets dealt. Webb has been on the DL since April and might not pitch at all this year. If the Dbacks move him this winter there’s no way they get the value they could have gotten.

    4. Lind, Romero, Hill? are a great core. If you bring in a couple young arms and bats via trades and good drafting this is a much more complete team that won’t just compete for a season, but much longer.

    5. Stars have been traded before. When Nomar was traded from Boston in 2004, fans cried (they’re crazy – I know). They won the World Series though. When the Marlins traded World Series hero Josh Beckett, their fans (all three of them) couldn’t have been happy. They got nothing in return except for a player making no money at that time by the name of Hanley Ramirez. These things end up working out from time to time. If you want to experience 1992 again, I think trading Doc is actually the best way to get it done.

  • http://fantasybaseballhotstove.blogspot.com Mark

    Granted I don’t consider myself a fan at all of the Jays, but speaking as a third party observer I think the best move is to trade Halladay and get a really good prospect to replace him plus some lesser prospects.

    1. If you want to go for everything in 2010 or 2009 you have to compete with the Rays, Yanks and Sox still. I don’t think any of those teams are going away although you can point out little flaws with all of them it’s still the best division in baseball on paper.

    2. The Sox and Yankees are going to be good at the rate things are going in 2011, 2012, 2013, etc. because of the economic model of baseball right now. That being said, the best way to compete with them is the model that’s been proven – Tampa’s model. Total rebuilding. It means having a .380 winning percentage rather than .480 or .500.

    3. Halladay has been awesome. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, which is exactly why he should be traded now. Think about it from the Diamondbacks perspective. Brandon Webb was extremely reliable for several seasons. If they traded him last winter, fans would have rioted in much the same way fans on this site are claiming to be unhappy if Halladay gets dealt. Webb has been on the DL since April and might not pitch at all this year. If the Dbacks move him this winter there’s no way they get the value they could have gotten.

    4. Lind, Romero, Hill? are a great core. If you bring in a couple young arms and bats via trades and good drafting this is a much more complete team that won’t just compete for a season, but much longer.

    5. Stars have been traded before. When Nomar was traded from Boston in 2004, fans cried (they’re crazy – I know). They won the World Series though. When the Marlins traded World Series hero Josh Beckett, their fans (all three of them) couldn’t have been happy. They got nothing in return except for a player making no money at that time by the name of Hanley Ramirez. These things end up working out from time to time. If you want to experience 1992 again, I think trading Doc is actually the best way to get it done.

  • Phillies fan

    Headed to Philly.

  • MoosterM

    Eh, remember when Alex Rios asked for a 5m/1yr contract a couple of years ago and J.P. Retardi counter-offered with like a 70m over 7 years deal? That was brilliant. I say trade Halladay for good prospects because we will not win in the shortrun and his loyalty to us over the years should be awarded, man.