Using CDD to Pick LCS Winners
I went 2-2 in my predictions for the LDS. I was happy that I identified Colorado to win. Here are my picks for the LCS.
These teams are very evenly matched again.
I will go into a little more detail.
Red Sox have a 57% chance to win while Cleveland has a 54% chance to win in a sweep
In a five game series the Sox have a 71% chance of winning while the Tribe will win 67% chance.
In a six game series the Sox have an 85% chance of winning while the Indians have an 80% chance.
In a seven game series the Sox have 97% chance of winning while the Indians have and 92% chance.
The Red Sox have a 4% overall advantage to win the series against the Indians.
In a sweep the Rockies have a 53% chance of winning the DBacks have 50%.
In a five game series the Rockies have a 67% chance of winning the DBacks 62%.
In a six game series the Rockies have a 80% chance of winning the DBacks 75%.
If the series goes the distance the Rockies have 91% chance of winning compared to the DBacks 85%.
I give the Rox a 5% chance of winning over Arizona overall.
How is this calculated. Run differential, common opponents, streaks, etc?
Also, using this method on last years playoffs, how would the Cardinals have done?
Run Diff. The Cards were dogs, it has them beating SD by a significant amount. I like how it will narrow the gaps that oddsmakers lay out. These teams are so close as it it.
I didn’t know that Arizona had a negative run differential. Studly managing to get the team 22 games over .500. Pythagorean record for the dbacks is 79 – 83. F–K Lou, Melvin should get the manager of the year award.
If I had a vote, which I still don’t I would be on the fence whether it was Melvin or Hurdle. I was picking Hurdle to get his a– fired. I would never pick a manager like Lou. I never like managers like him. He is such a blow bag. Has to realise the show isn’t about him. See Mr. Kman’s articles and responses. I know he has a hate-on for Sweet Lou. I think has benefitted more than ever from great GM’s. Look what he was able to do in Tampa Bay. What a fruit he is.
Lou is in my bad books. Typical Lou day;
Get to the park
Hit up the buffet
Fiddle with the lineup card
Stand for the anthem
Take a nap
Hear the crowd roar. Wakes up. And Lou is rather grumpy when he is awoken.
Go argue a call that’s clearly correct. Have a fit and either A) Get tossed and nap in the clubhouse or B) go back to the bench and have the “angry face”
Something can be said for a manager of his style, which is basically do nothing other than manage the bullpen. In tampa where he actually had to do some managing and teaching/developing of talent, he was the shits. Thus, my justified hate for Lou.
Hurdle was pretty money as well, although I think the Dbacks had more holes and rookie fill-ins. That, along with the pythagorean thing gets him my unofficial vote (and more importantly, a place on the end of year MUD awards ballot.)
Sometimes his managing stlye gets results right away but it is exhausting for players. See Billy Martin, Earl Weaver, Bobby Valentine even Bobby Cox. These guys think the fans come out to see them and are so arrogant that it may disrupt their ability to manage.