Using CDD to pick the World Series Winner

Using CDD to Pick the World Series Winner 

My CDD was perfect in picking the Pennant Winners so here we go with my WS picks.

Comparative Dependence Differential had the Red Sox as the hands on favourite to win the WS and the AL pennant and surprising to many out there it also had Colorado winning the NL Pennant.  When looking at Colorado as I did in an article last week, they are the type of team commonly gives significant trouble when they make the playoffs.  They are a team with average pitching and great hitting.  CDD says they are 6% more dependant on hitting than pitching.  There have been only 7 teams with a 6% dependency on hitting to make the WS below is how they fared. 

1980 KC +4% vs Phi

1962 SF +4% vs NYY

1949 Bro +4% vs NYY

1929 ChiC +11% vs PhA

1920 Cle +13% vs Bro

1914 PhA +7% vs BosN

1903 Pits +7% vs Bos

The opponents of these teams have, for the most part, been stronger teams.  Also, 3 of the opponents have also been htting dependants.  And two opponents been virtually neutral. Only one team, the 1920 Indians won the WS.  With Colorado’s streaky play lately it is also worthy to note that the 1914 Boston Braves show up on this list, but as a neutral team beating a hitting dependant team.

There have been 13 teams to make the WS with a 4% dependancy on pitching as the 2007 Red Sox have.  These teams are 7-6 in those series.  These teams are 2-3 against teams with a general dependency on hitting.

Anyways, these trends have very small sample sizes, and dispite the fact the Colorado has a dependency on hitting a average pitching Boston is a double threat, they led the AL in pitching and were thrid in RF.

CDD says Boston as a 4% likelyhood to win out over the Rockies.

 

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2 replies on “Using CDD to pick the World Series Winner”
  1. says: Kman

    I know what your saying here, so I’m not trying to be critical.

    The Rockies had the awesome 2nd half pitching and if I had a guess, I’d say that the Rockies game is dependent on a third factor, defense, more than hitting or pitching. I’m not sure how that could be subbed into a statistic and we all know that historic defensive stats can be altered by a home town scorer.

  2. says: Early

    I agree, the Rockies depend on fielding as a complement to their pitching more than most teams. However, most players will make the routine error and all the hittiing the cutoff man, play in the hole, defense shifts are not properly recognised statistically. CDD accounts for R per G not ERA. If the third base coach can be a factor in a series maybe it is time for the home town scorer to become a factor in influencing the outcome of a WS.

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