Yu Darvish: The Missing Piece For Blue Jay Contention?

 

With the announcement that Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish has hired agents Arn Tellem and Don Nomura in preparation for his posting, I began to think about how Darvish might be the perfect fit for the Toronto Blue Jays.

For those who are not familiar with the Japanese pitching phenom, we profiled Darvish almost 4 years ago.  Since then, he’s turned in a stellar performance at the 2009 World Baseball Classic and has packed on much more muscle to his lanky frame to increase his durability.


Click to play

Just yesterday I read a “scouting report” on Darvish from Oyl in Tokyo.  I use the term “scouting report” loosely because the piece doesn’t so much scout Darvish as fawn over him with much hyperbole.  In the post Oyl makes a contentious point:

Darvish’s most contemporary Japanese comparison has been Boston Red Sox starter, Dice-K. The comparisons between the two pitchers should stop after ‘country of origin.’ Dice-K’s tumultuous major league career is not an indication of the kind of potential Yu Darvish possesses. Major League teams knew exactly how good Dice-K could be. His talent was not on the rise when he made the jump to the major leagues. He was a legend in Japan during high school, and had a solid professional career. By the time he switched to the majors, he was a crafty veteran, with a well documented scouting report.

Darvish detractors will often point to his Japanese contemporaries in Matsuzaka, Igawa, Ishii, Ohka, Kobayashi et al.  Currently Darvish is only 25 years old.  Assuming he is posting this offseason and joins an MLB team, he will just be entering his prime at age 26 with (presumably) his best years ahead of him.  In fact, based on age, his career path would mirror that of Hideo Nomo.  At age 26, Nomo played his first MLB game for the Los Angeles Dodgers and went on to win the Rookie of the Year award and finished 4th in Cy Young voting.  What Oyl fails to recognize is that Matsuzaka was also 26 years old when he played his first MLB game.  Why would Major League teams know exactly how good Dice-K could be and not Darvish?  Why was Dice-K’s talent not “on the rise” while Darvish’s is? Matsuzaka was a crafty veteran when he joined the majors at age 26 but Darvish would be a young stud at the same age?

The  difference between Matsuzaka and Darvish (or Nomo for that matter) is that Matsuzaka’s workload was ridiculous in his youth.  Here is an excerpt from our Dice-K profile from 2006:

(Matsuzaka) made a name for himself at the age of 18 when he led Yokohama High school to the Japanese Highschool National Championship (The Koshien Tournament). In the quarter finals of that tournament, Matsuzaka threw 250 pitches over a 17 inning complete game (!!!), emerging victorious. As if that wasn’t amazing enough, THE VERY NEXT DAY Daisuke pitched in the final and threw the first no hitter ever in a final.

Although Darvish isn’t babied by any stretch of the imagination, he’s never been treated like a rented mule as is the case with Dice-K.  In 2011 Darvish was averaging 125 pitches per start with 5 days of rest instead of the regular 4 days that is customary in MLB.  Darvish also has 5 inches and 4o pounds on Matsuzaka.  In my mind, the abuse Dice-K was subject to in his formative years is the reason why many view his career as “tumultuous.” 

While many think Dice K’s career has been a bust, I look towards Dice-K’s 33-15 record with a 3.72 ERA in his first 2 seasons in MLB.  Nomo was 29-17 with a 2.90 ERA in his first 2 seasons.  If you think that Darvish lies somewhere in between, split the difference and you have twice as many wins as losses and an ERA hovering around ~3.30.  If I’m a contending team, I’ll take that.  (Of course this is an exercise in futility since Darvish is his own man and not an excel spreadsheet.)

The elephant in the room when it comes to the Japanese posting process is straight cash money.  In 2006, the Boston Red Sox won the bidding rights to Dice-K with a bid of $51 million.  They then signed him to a six-year, $52 million dollar contract, bringing the total number of the deal to $103 million.  Consider that a starting point for Yu Darvish.

As soon as big money is mentioned, Jays fans have a tendency to write the team off of ever having a chance to land the player or complain that the team never spends any money.  Getting Blanked was nice enough to debunk that myth for us all so I don’t have to go into it myself. But really – why not us?  After all, who would have thought the Cincinnati Reds, of all teams, would land Aroldis Chapman?

The Blue Jays have the wealthiest owner in baseball in Rogers Communications and have stated numerous times that they are not afraid to spend money once the team is in contention.  But is signing Yu Darvish the right move if the team is in fact on the cusp of contention?

The Tao of Stieb is loath to sign big-name free agents to long term contracts, and with good reason. He (or they?) stated on Twitter:

You can’t really blame him for feeling this way.  He’s right – paying for a player’s past performance and crippling your franchise in future years when the player himself becomes close to being a cripple… well, that’s not the way to go.  Spending $50+ million just to negotiate with a player who has never thrown a pitch in the Majors is a very risky move and could very well cripple a franchise.  That said, Darvish isn’t exactly a veteran at age 26 and if he is signed to a similar deal to Dice-K, the final year of his deal will be at age 32.  This is an advantage he has over the “proven veterans” that exist on the open market – youth.  If Darvish’s training regimen is as legendary as Oyl in Tokyo says it is, he’ll be just fine – just look at Roy Halladay.  Even Hideo Nomo led the AL in strikeouts at age 32.  But if Oyl’s post is all smoke and mirrors (and it very well might be)… you can look to Dice-K.

Those fretting about the unknown can take solace in the gospel according to Keith Law.  The ESPN scout and former assistant to former GM JP Ricciardi calls Darvish a legitimate ace (insider only), not just a #1 starter (ask Hum and Chuck what the difference is). 

Drew Fairservice from Ghostrunner on First thinks that we are on the cusp of contention with the addition of CF Colby Rasmus:

Moving from a replacement level-ish stopgap to a guy with legit 6 Win upside right now, not 4 years down the road means the club requires one fewer piece to compete. One piece (Prince Fielder?) makes them not a good team but a competing team. A “better than the Rays” team. A “shit down the throats of the AL Central” team. A “buy your tickets now” team.

It is happening, people. Maybe Prince Fielder is a bad example but, then again, maybe he isn’t? This coming offseason starts the whole “marginal win value” debate anew. That is a debate that can be an awful lot of fun.

He’s right.  It is an awful lot of fun.  Let’s look at the roster for 2012 should the Jays be able to acquire the Princely One and sign Yu Darvish.  For argument’s sake, I’ll slot Darvish behind Romero so he can get his feet wet.

Starting Rotation:

1.  Romero
2.  Darvish
3.  Morrow
4.  Cecil
5.  Drabek/Litsch/Villanueva/McGowan/Alvarez/whoever else

Starting Lineup:

1.  Escobar SS
2.  Rasmus CF
3.  Bautista RF
4.  Fielder 1B/DH
5.  Lind 1B/DH
6.  Snider/Thames LF
7.  Lawrie 3B
8.  Hill 2B
9.  Arencibia/d’Arnaud C

That looks pretty close to a contender to me.  At the very, very least a 2nd wild card.  As we know, the bullpen is the easiest thing to fix and can be taken care of in the offseason, especially now that the Jays have a top-5 farm system in all of baseball.  In a best of 7 playoff series, I feel confident with Romero, Darvish and Morrow toeing the rubber.  Of course, whether or not the Jays land Darvish depends on whether Alex Anthopoulos’ evaluation of his talent matches up with how much Darvish (and other MLB teams) feel he is worth (as well as whether or not he is a fit for the Blue Jays’ long-term plans).  

Toronto is a world-class, cosmopolitan city which Darvish would be able to adjust to almost seamlessly, in my mind.  To me, Darvish fits all of the criteria the Jays require:  a young, dominant pitcher who fits in with the team’s plans for years to come.  Of course, in baseball, nothing is certain.  But with great risk comes great reward and the Jays are going to have to make a splash in order to get over the Red Sox/Yankees hump.  I believe that Yu Darvish is the missing piece to the Blue Jays playoff puzzle.

Travis Snider's new best friend?


Click to play


Click to play

[youtube rLGB69siot8] [youtube U_6GQSS2ZNU] [youtube ZOu3fQu81Gk] [youtube 9Vu9tg_46M8]

Images courtesy of Daylife (AP) and Flickr.

has written for Mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Callum on Twitter, LinkedIn and Instagram (@callumhughson)

  • http://www.jbrains.ca J. B. Rainsberger

    I don’t understand why you’d favor overpaying for Prince Fielder and leaving Aaron Hill in this lineup. That seems like a typical panic move. If you’re not consequently going to package one or more of Lind, Thames, Snider for a top-flight second baseman, then opening the vault for Fielder seems unnecessarily risky. If you’re going to open the vault and overpay for a player, make it a two-year contract for a closer.

    • http://www.twitter.com/callumhughson Callum Hughson

      JB, first of all, I make no mention of what the cost is for Prince Fielder. I don’t favour overpaying for him or underpaying for him. I favour acquiring him.

      Secondly, this is a post about Yu Darvish. Not about 1 gaping hole in the lineup. I didn’t spend a lot of time analyzing every slot 1-9. It very well may be the case that Hill is gone next season. He can still play defense and for a #8 or #9 hitter you could do worse (but not much). No team is without its weaknesses. It does bring up an interesting question: Who would you rather have? Lind/Fielder/Hill or, say, Fielder/Edwin Encarnacion/Brandon Phillips?

  • Buck Bokai

    I suspect the risk and gigantic cost involved might make him less likely to be with the Jays.
    That said, I’d be stoked if they got him.

  • Sal

    Nice read. Hope AA signs him, no matter the cost.

  • Buck Bokai

    Just thought of a couple other things – first off, that the Jays wouldn’t have to surrender draft picks because he’s not an MLB free agent, correct? One of the big reasons they’ve not been anywhere near type A’s (plus the pointlessness of signing older ranked free agents in a rebuilding process).

    Also – all this depends on what Darvish wants. He seems like the kind of guy – based on what I’ve read and seen of him – to want to go to an immediate contender. Not “hey, we’re probably going to contend if you sign on because we’re building a potentially winning franchise here” more like a “we’ve been to the playoffs 75% of the time in the last decade” or some such.

    • http://www.twitter.com/callumhughson Callum Hughson

      Correct, no draft picks will be surrendered to sign Darvish.

      Secondly, Darvish has no say in the matter. According to the rules of the Japanese posting process, it is up to Darvish’s club as to which team’s bid they choose to accept. After that happens, Darvish can only negotiate with the team who makes the winning bid – playoff contender or not.

      • http://mopupduty.com matthias

        If Yu doesn’t like the club or the contract, he doesn’t have to sign. Although I imagine all of the details are worked out before hand (posting fee, MLB contract, etc) when this much $$$ is involved.

  • Tom Mulhall

    If Darvish doesn’t sign with a ML team, then I don’t think his team gets to keep the posting money. So that lessens the risk to the ML team and also means his Japanese team will try to find a good fit.

  • Chris

    I would love to seen them sign Fielder and Darvish, reports are AA is overseas right now watching him pitch.

    We definetly need a _legit_ ace-calibre pitcher to go with Romero atop our rotation. I’m not comfortable putting Morrow down as our #2 stater if we’re trying to be a contender.

    Even if we did sign Darvish and Fielder, and lets say Johnson or Hill at 2B, I would favour Boston/New York’s lineups over ours because their lineups are move historically consistant, particularly Lind and Bautista who both seem to struggle for weeks or months at a time. As much as I would love to see them go out and sign these two players, I dont feel the rest of the Foundation/core of the team is proven enough to consider that team a true contender and therefore I dont know if I would make those moves right now if I were AA.

    • http://www.twitter.com/callumhughson Callum Hughson

      You make good points Chris. And who’s to say the Red Sox/Yankees won’t one-up (or more) the Jays in the offseason by signing a Pujols, Jose Reyes and/or a CJ Wilson. The Jays can finish in 3rd place with or without Darvish and Fielder.

      But… that’s why we play the 162 game season. It would be hella exciting to see what happens.

  • nunya

    Tao of Steib has also said he like Vernon Wells and Brian Tallet.

  • http://rickywattsonline.com Michael Anderson

    Outstandingly educational bless you, There’s no doubt that your readers would possibly want a lot more reviews like that maintain the excellent content.

  • My Moustache on Celebrities

    Hey! I did that photoshop of Yu with the moustache! Glad to see it put to good use!