David Wright = Fantasy Bust Update
Here’s a cut and paste of the original November 2006 Prediction:
David Wright will hit less than 17 HR
In Wright’s first season and a half in the majors, he tore the cover off the ball. But after the 2006 Home Run Derby, Mr. Potty mouth Wright seemed to lose his power. Now I’m not saying that the HR derby is directly attributable to the HR decline (although the same thing happened to Abreu), but in the post all-star split Wright hit only 6 HR in 243 AB, for a rate of 1 HR per 40.5 AB. In the first half he hit 20 and had a rate of 1 HR per 16.95 AB.
Whether trading in the market, gambling or in most facets of life, many will succumb to what is called “outcome bias”. Outcome Bias means pretty much what you would think. One’s overall assessment of the decision is based upon its success rate, not the logic used to come to the original conclusion. Now, I’m certainly not saying that right and wrong have no value. Far from it. However, by using this logic, one congratulates themselves for lucky, irrational decisions that have yielded a success and chastises themselves for a sound wrong answers.
Is David Wright a 2007 fantasy bust? Not in the least. Do I agree with the logic set forth, however risky it was? Certainly. Would I make this call again based upon the data? Most likely. Now I could sit here and brag about calling Victorino, Rollins, Braun, and others but I won’t. Myself and the other head writer here at the MUD pride ourselves on analyzing data, trends, and anecdotal game watching when making predictions (real predictions, not the “Ryan Howard will hit a bunch of HR” type). Sometimes a pick is safe & sometimes it’s not.
Wright had a hard time with home run power in the first month+ of the season. As good hitters do, he made adjustments and in turn got his power stroke back. My hat’s off to him.
I have no problem admitting the following:
I was wrong on David Wright