Josh Barfield vs Kevin Kouzmanoff & Andrew Brown

Now this is the type of trade that makes sense! If you recall, I wrote an article a few days back stating that the veteran for prospect trade would not happen this off-season. So far, so good. After this prospect for prospect trade was announce, almost every outlet on the Internet began calling it a one-sided deal in favour of the Indians. But it’s actually a pretty even deal and could even swing towards the Padres in future years. Let’s look at the players involved.

Josh Barfield

Throughout his career, he’s been a year or two younger than the competition at each stop. Josh should hit for average and power at the MLB level. He can also run, stealing 21 in 26 attempts in 2006. Playing half of his games in San Diego hurt his final line. Here are his 2006 home/road splits;

As you can see, his OPS was over .150 points higher on the road. He does tend to strikeout a lot but last season in the MLB he had his lowest SO total of his career, with 80. In previous minor league season his total was well over 100. So it appears that he is maturing as a hitter. One thing we all have to remember about Josh is that he played a full season at 23, an age when most are still in the minors. His defensive is regarded as above average and still developing. This guy has future all-star written all over him.

Kevin Kouzmanoff

If you read our site regularly, then you were rewarded when this trade was announced. Instead of saying “Who”, you had already heard of Mr. Kouzamoff. Here’s what we said two weeks ago;

“Kouzmanoff hit clean-up in the 2006 AFL all-star game. So far he’s hitting .429/.487/.743 in the AFL. But get this, he hit a combined .379 between AA & AAA! His total line was .379/.437/.656. In limited MLB playing time (56 AB) he hit 3 HR and hit a grand slam on his first ever major league pitch. While he’s older (07/25/81), Kouzmanoff should be an interesting player to watch next MLB season. As an added bonus, here’s a note on Kouuzmanoff (3rd baseman) that I wrote after attending a Buffalo Bisons (AAA) game late August;

“At one point in the game he was in position to catch a bouncing ground ball, but at the last moment he pulled his glove back, allowing the SS to catch it and turn it into a double play. A play like that won’t show up in the boxscore but it really showcased his overall baseball knowledge. He went 0 – 4 but he had some solid at bats. In fact, in his first two abs he was able to see a total of 17 pitches.”

The Indians had 3^rd, 1^st, and DH locked up for next season, leaving Kevin with nowhere to play. Otherwise, I couldn’t see him getting traded. I want to again point out his batting average. He hit .353 in International League (AAA) this past season. The league average was in the low .260’s! In-fact, his overall AAA line isn’t too off from Ryan Howard’s monster IL 2005. This guy’s gonna hit, there’s no doubt about that. The real question is what will Petco Park do to his power numbers, his swing, etc. A number of .300+ seasons are in his future.

2^nd is a much easier–and cheaper– position to fill this off-season than 3^rd. The Padres felt they could fill 3^rd here, and acquire a 2^nd baseman through the FA market. That’s why the deal was made.

Andrew Brown

The important part of the deal that everyone is overlooking. Brown, a set-up man, has dominated AAA for the past two seasons, here’s 2005 & 2006.

Nobody can hit this guy, but control is the big issue that he’s faced throughout his career. In 2005 it looked like he’d overcome control issues, but in 2006 he reverted back to form. The Padres staff has become famous for turning around relief pitchers and it could very well happen here. Brown has the chance to become the next 2.50 ERA middle, or set-up reliever for the Padres bullpen, or he could continue to walk 4 – 5 batter’s an inning, making him the true wildcard in this deal.

So there you have it, a closer look at the Padres/Indians deal. I don’t think we can fairly judge this trade for at least a year or two. It’s a given that Barfield and Kouzmanoff are going to produce, the real question is what will Brown’s value be over the short and long term.