New Jays Starters and Pitching to AL DH’s

The obvious: The trio of incoming Toronto Blue Jays starters will have to deal with American League DH’s.

How big of an impact will this have? While there have been some historical study’s regarding league switches–Hardball Times 2008–these tend to vary season to season, and suffer from samples issues, etc. And reading about a 3% drop in GB/FB ratio just isn’t as fun as checking out the ridiculous splits.

Format for this post:

Splits, beginning with vs positional pitcher, then vs non-pitchers; followed by comments
Percentage of fastballs (or in Dickey’s case, his knuckler) vs pitchers and non-pitchers, followed by comments.

Mark Buehrle

Buehrle	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs. Pitcher	61	50	3	0	1	16	0.06	0.078	0.06	0.138	0.088
vs. Non-P	767	713	194	26	39	109	0.272	0.311	0.439	0.75	0.287

Took care of business; issued only one walk; BABIP non-existent, showcasing weak contact.

Buehrle	FB+Cutter	Total	Percentage
NP	1368	2878	0.47533009
Pitcher	117	183	0.639344262

Large up-tick as expected; lower ‘stress’ with FB/CU; finished PA in 3 pitches vs 3.75 to non-pitchers.

R.A Dickey

Dickey	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs. Pitcher	64	56	11	1	1	16	0.196	0.207	0.25	0.457	0.25
vs. Non-P	863	792	181	23	53	214	0.229	0.283	0.37	0.653	0.282

Higher than expected BABIP of .250; 1 HR allowed was an 0-2, 380 foot shot to Adam Wainwright; great SO/BB ratio

Dickey	Knuckle	Total	Percentage
NP	2772	3156	0.878326996
Pitcher	130	203	0.640394089

Large up-tick in fastballs to opposing pitchers; pitchers hit .273 on Dickey FB, only .178 on knuckleball

Josh Johnson

Johnson	PA	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
vs. Pitcher	62	55	4	0	2	19	0.073	0.103	0.109	0.213	0.108
vs. Non-P	736	658	176	14	63	146	0.267	0.332	0.384	0.716	0.321

Great SO/BB ratio; went to 3 ball count only 6 times in 62 PA; 35 balls put in play, 24 on the ground

Johnson	FB	Total	Percentage
NP	1578	2929	0.538750427
Pitcher	140	215	0.651162791

Average FB velocity exactly the same to both NP & Pitchers at 92.7 MPH; 1st pitch FB percentage was over 85%

Conclusion

Nothing out of the ordinary; all three pitchers benefited in 2012 from NL rules. Having to face AL DH’s should make life more difficult, however with the nature of the DH position switching from a full-time hitter to more of a rotational/day-off type position, the impact should be less than years past.

Sources: Baseball-Refernence, ESPN Stats & Media, Image via Google Images

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