Adam Loewen – 2007 Breakout Season?

Adam Loewen – Breakout Season?

 

Adam Loewen Canada

  

A few months back, the three usual suspects from this site selected our Canadian born most valuable pitcher. The selections were Jeff Francis, Eric Bedard, and Adam Loewen. Adam Loewen? 5.37 ERA, 1.54 Whip Adam Loewen as the best pitcher from Canada? Ok, maybe it’s a little far-fetched. Yet I’m going to stick by my selection (Yep, I’m the guilty party).

 

 

Loewen has some nasty stuff. “Yeah, so what, he can’t throw strikes” is the typical response–and rightly so. Could this season be any different? That’s what I’m banking on. In the last two months of the season, Adam finally got his stuff (sub word here) together, lowering his WHIP to 1.32 in August and 1.38 in September. These WHIP numbers in themselves are nothing to write home about, but they did showcase a mark of improvement.

 

Splits IP H ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
May 4.2 5 5 2 3 7 9.32 1.71 0.263
June 25.2 30 19 2 18 18 6.66 1.87 0.297
July 20 21 12 1 12 17 5.4 1.65 0.273
August 27.1 24 12 0 12 25 3.95 1.32 0.231
September 34.2 31 19 3 17 31 4.93 1.38 0.242

 

Notice the declining BA, declining WHIP, and overall low number of HR allowed. In-fact, for the full 2006 season, Adam placed 7th in fewest HR allowed per inning with more than 100 IP thrown.

 

HR per IP Leaders

nameFirst
nameLast
Chien-Ming Wang
Roger Clemens
Brandon Webb
Derek Lowe
John Lackey
Jake Westbrook
Adam Loewen

 

Everyone on this list would have to be considered a star quality pitcher, and everyone minus Westbrook and Loewen occupied the #1 starter position for their team at the end of the season.

 

What I’m driving at is this: Loewen is extremely hard to hit, and this is clearly shown by his low BA against and low HR per IP. That’s never been his problem. His problem is the high amount of walks per IP.

 

Towards the end of the season Adam was still clicking at a walk per two IP, or 4.5 BB per game average.

 

So far in spring training, Loewen has 9 K in 4 IP. He also has 2 BB, which is in line with his standard 4.5 IP per game ratio.

 

If Adam can cut down on his BB per game, he can become an elite level starter as early as this season. And if he maintains his current ratio, I still believe that he can post numbers around a 4.25 ERA with plenty of strikeouts. Adam is out of minor league options, so he’ll be given a fair chance this season to produce. We’ll keep our eyes on Loewen during his first few starts of the season. I know that the K’s will be there, the interesting factor to watch will clearly be his BB. Stay tuned.

 

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has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • Early

    Maybe he is so hard to hit because his stuff is too far from the strike zone.

  • I shouldn’t even dignify that with a response…

    ,but then answer how does he K almost 1 batter per inning? The K’s, BA, and mostly the low HR per 9 show that it’s difficult to get good wood on the ball against Adam. Adam’s lowest months for BB/9 were August & September, which were also his lowest BA against months. With his 2006 stats there was no correlation between low BA and wildness. In-fact, the better his control was, the lower his BA against.