Four New Members of the 500 HR Club in 2007

Four New Members of the 500 HR Club in 2007

 

The upcoming 2007 season should be a unique one, with four players on pace to join the 500 Home Run club. Let’s take a look at who’s on pace, how many HR they need to reach 500 & their estimated career totals.

 

 

 

 

Frank Thomas – Current Total: 487

 

 

The Big Hurt has slowed in recent years, averaging only 23 HR a season over the past three years. But he’s a shoe-in to join the 500 club if he can stay healthy for even half a season. That may be a big if, as he played only 74 games in 2004, and 34 games in 2005. Frank is currently 38 years old.

 

Estimated Career Total: 532 HR

 

Jim Thome – Current Total: 472

 

Thome is a player that has been designated as injury prone by the media, yet he’s played more than 140 games in each of the past eight seasons, minus 2005 (59). Outside of his shortened 2005, Thome has hit more than 40 HR in each of his past five full seasons. His .565 Career Slugging percentage is 18th all-time, ahead of HOF players Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Mickey Mantle. “Country strong”, it looks like Jim can play another three to four seasons at a high level. Jim is currently 36.

 

 

Estimated Career Total: 586 HR

 

Manny Rameriz – Current Total: 470

 

For years, Manny and fellow 500 HR bound Jim Thome batted in the same lineup. Manny is an OPS machine, currently 9th on the all-time list with a career 1.011. Historically, Ramirez hits close around 40 HR a season, and one would believe that this will continue over the next few campaigns. Manny could be a serious threat to Hank Aaron and the all-time RBI record of 2297, as he consistently knocks in 100+ RBI every year and is—for the moment—playing in fenway. Manny is currently 34

 

Estimated Career Total: 623 HR

 

Alex Rodriquez – Current Total: 464

 

The other three hitters on the list are more traditional, nineties type power hitters, meaning larger, slower, and with higher walk totals. A-Rod (30) is a smaller, more compact player that is also a threat on the base paths (241 career steals). For comparisons sake, Hank Aaron had hit only 366 HR by the time he was 30, Mantle 404 & even Jimmie Foxx hit 429 at the same age. While the media has been down on A-Rod during his New York stint, he has still averaged 40 HR, 116 runs & 119 RBI a season during his time in pin stripes. Barring injury, Rodriquez poses a serious threat to Aaron and Bonds for becoming the all-time HR champ.

 

Estimated Career Total: 737 HR

 

 

Jim Thome 500 HR Club 

 

 

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has written for mopupduty.com since 2006. Follow Matthias on Twitter, Facebook and Google +

  • Early

    I assume these HR estimates are yours?? I am surprised you are giving The Hurt that many dingers, he and Thome have quietly snuck up on that landmark. Lots of souvenirs going into the stands this year. A-Rod is a big one, I think he and Pujols have a better chance than anyone at getting Aaron’s 755.

    Anyways, 500 HR seems to be the new 400 HR but all of the above players should be Hall of Famers when they finally pack it in.

  • Big Hurt may be high, but he may play another three years, so it works out to about 20 a year. But it’s probably an over-estimation.

    500 is certainly the new 400. Delgado has 407 or 409 and could reach 500 by early 2009. He’s good, but HOF good?