Jesse Litsch to Tampa Bay Rays?
Check out this photo:
Awesome, huh? I gave the baseballboss game a try (the one that’s in all of the ads over at MLB Trade Rumors) and this is the card for Jesse Litsch. Check out the cut and paste on the neck. Speaking of the Jays and Rays….
The Jays will not be able to compete with the Rays in the AL East in 2009 unless they can shore up their rotation. I use Jesse as the prime example.
One of the breakout stars of the 2008 playoffs was number 1 pick David Price. No shit, right? Heading into 2009 Price will be fourth on the Rays starting pitching depth chart, behind Shields, Kazmir and Garza. The fifth starter will be Andy Sonnanstine.
Jesse Litsch on the other hand is slated to be the opening day #2 due to the loss of Burnett and numerous injuries to the Jays pitching staff.
Jesse Litsch (13 – 9) vs Andy Sonnanstine (13 – 9)
FIP = Fielding Independent ERA
xFIP = Fielding Independent ERA normalized for HR
While Litsch had a large advantage in ERA during the 2008 season, Sonnanstine had a great SO/BB ratio and lower (which is better) FIP ERA. xFIP are very close but in advantage of Litsch.
The higher DER (defensive efficiency ratio) helps to partially explain a portion of Litsh’s ERA advantage. Litsch in-fact allowed more line drives, although to his credit he did induce more groundballs. Excluding luck and defense, both pitchers are similar in efficiency.
This comparison wasn’t meant to be a knock on either pitcher. Let’s just put it this way; If an opposing teams #5 is similar to your #2, well, the Jays are in trouble.