Would Marcum Even Get Drafted in 2010?

Don’t get me wrong. I love Shaun Marcum. But I still wonder, if Shaun Marcum where a three year college player entering the 2010 draft, would he even be a high pick?

Leading off in 2010

Marcum’s fastball clocks in at an average of 87 MPH. This is the fourth slowest speed from a starter in the AL (100+ IP) and the second lowest from a RH starter.

According to Fan Graph pitch values Marcum uses his fastball as a loss leader, it’s score (which is negative) ranks 36th out of 39 AL starters.

On the other hand his change-up registers +17 runs, making it one of the top 10 pitches overall in the AL (starters only) and the second best non-fastball pitch outside of Francisco Liriano’s slider.

All things considering Marcum’s 7.5 K/9 with an 87 MPH fastball is extremely impressive.

But back to the title of the article. Would Marcum get drafted in 2010?

Scouting

Most organizations and scouting services make up a sheet including:

Present

Future

Low (MPH)

High (MPH)

(within the standard range of 20 – 80)

Typically the following pitch and command types are scored (although they can vary from team to team, scout to scout, etc):

Fastball

FB Movement

Curve/Slider/Change, other pitches

Overall Control

Command

Poise

Baseball Instinct

I think it would be safe to say that Marcum’s fastball score (present/future) would be grade out at around a 40/45 at best, with a low of 85 MPH and a high of 89, maybe 90.

His other grades would be strong, as he displays very good command, control, has strong poise and baseball instinct, not to mention a change-up that would score at minimum 60+, maybe even at 70.

Draft Time

Clearly Marcum can pitch and pitch well at the MLB level. But scouts, teams and pundits love the radar gun.

With such a low fastball grade from a righty, where do you think Marcum would go in the 2010 MLB Draft?

Graham

I think a crafty scouting department might have Marcum on their sights and draft him somewhere between rounds 5-7. That being said, every blogger and form junkie will look only at the numbers and criticize the pick and point to the less than sexy fastball and promptly call it a wasted pick and tell the world he will amount to nothing.
Roll Fizzlebeef

I say he goes pretty high. At least 5th round, and that’s only if his “inverted W” motion scares off people from taking him higher.

Even as a junior in college, there is still a bit of a window to try and get his fastball up a couple of notches, but even if it doesn’t you get an amazing change-up and a couple of other really solid pitches in his cutter/slider and curve.

He’d be one of the those picks that every pundit and scout will be watching to see which team flinches first on, for sure.
Matthias Koster

Great answers Graham & Fizzle

Good points on scouts looking past the radar, with Blogger’s & draft pundits hating the move.
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N/A

Knowing that Marcum was a ss/closer during his most successful collegiate days, in which his fastball was at 92 consistantly(94 at times) as a closer was a good indication in why he was as high a pick then as he was, in regards to the question as where he would fit as a 2010 draft… understanding that he does have a live arm, and considering his roll as a pitcher, that as a starter, his fastball carrys enough life despite the radar readings. coupled with the plus change up and well above average cutter and breaking pitch… he commands the strike zone with 3 even 4 pitches. The most weight Marcum carrys, would be his presence on the mound. A fierce competitor who knows how to pitch. I would have no problem slotting him 3rd-5th round.
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