Here’s the second part of the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays Roundtable. This portion focusses on the near and mid-term future, which is something that all Jays fans are (or should be) interested in.
Late to the dance? Click here for part one of the roundtable
Line-up
Question #3: For the 2010 season to be deemed a success, what needs to happen on and off the field?
Bluebird Banter
Blue Jay Hunter
Wherever the Blue Jays finish in the standings or how many games they win this year is irrelevant when it comes to the long term success of this team. Much like last year, the 2010 season will be all about individual performances rather than a group effort.
I think at least one of either Brett Wallace or Kyle Drabek needs to make an appearance with the Jays at some point this season, so we can at least start seeing some of the immediate results for the Halladay trade.
Ghost Runner on First
For the 2010 season to officially rank as successful, I need to see less than 10 guys make starts with 400 PAs apiece for Travis Snider and Brett Wallace. Off the field, there will be very little success. Credit Beeston (something I’m loathe to do) for adjusting the pricing structure in a year when it will impact the fewest fans. Get that house in order before the fans start coming back to support a much better team down the road.
Hum and Chuck
Success will probably not come in the win-loss record, but rather in the young guys developing and the old guys (hi Vernon) not regressing…further. Off the field? Well, manager/team feuds, while fun to write about, aren’t a good thing for team morale. I think more team/player meetings would be good. Communicate. Or pull a Scott Rolen, and play your ass off despite being both miserable and a miserable human being.
Infield Fly
On the field, I’d say hitting the 80-win mark would be deemed a great success. I think the team has the talent that, with the luck they’re long overdue, they could pull it off. Off the field, Anthopolous can work miracles, but everything, to me anyway, is a failure until Cito’s gone. I’ve been picturing him for the last little while as handcuffs, but now I’m thinking that saying Cito handcuffs AA doesn’t quite do the situation justice. It’s more like Cito has AA (and Ricciardi before that) locked up in medieval
Jays Journal
The Jays need to be over .500, Alex Anthopolous have to draft top-level talent in the draft regardless of the price of signing them – and must actually sign them this year, and they have to continue to be aggressive in getting some international talent on board. Finally, they have to get 1 or 2 players in from Free Agency in the off season to become one of the favourites going into 2011. The top priorities should be a 5-tool outfielder, a top notch starter, and a premium closer.
Jays Tumblr Blog (Go Jays Go)
The Drunks need to ban anonymous comments. The Jays need to get a better sense of who is going to fit into their long-term plans as well as give The Kids as much experience as possible. If Wallace shows he can play third base at this level and Morrow shows he has a #2/#3 arm that works and Snider figures things out how am I not excited? Oh and that signing of the Cuban SS, Adeinis Hechavarria, becomes official. Finally.
John McDonald’s Cabinet
Too many people get sucked into believing that there needs to be a “leader” of the clubhouse. Sure, there can be a “symbolic leader” but the leader needs to divide his responsibilities evenly- the leader simply provides the vision and goals that must be attained. This is a professional ball club, everyone should have an entrepreneurial attitude. Not a follow the leader attitude, unless that would mold them into a great ball player like the greats before them.
Mop-up Duty (Callum)
The most important thing for me is what happens off the field, in the first year entry draft. Anthopolous needs to pick the right guys and all of them. As well, AA should jettison the spare parts to add some depth in the minor league system. Apart from that, the number one thing here is experience. This season can be used as a chance for all the players to learn and bond to form a strong team going forward. They will make mistakes, learn from them and won’t make them again. Cito needs to let Marcum and Romero bear the load of dealing with the pressure of fronting a young, inexperienced rotation and he needs to let them work through their mistakes and jams.
Mop-up Duty (Matthias)
This team could win 60 games this season and I’d still be happy if they:
1. Spend at the draft. As we all know J.P. slashed payroll late last season with Rios and Rolen (Kudos). AA came in and added very few Bucks (zing) to the roster. Ownership needs to man up and speed some dough during the draft. When I look around at the AL East I tremble at the thought of competing in 2012, 2013. The Orioles will be stacked by then, the Rays still have one of the better farm systems in baseball and we all know the Red Sox and Yankees will spend to compete.
2. Have some bounce back and breakout seasons at the MLB level – Vernon has to contribute something to the bottom line. I don’t need the world, just an .800 OPS for $20 million. Sounds about right. Snider needs to hit lefties, otherwise his value drops. Lind needs to keep on racking, soon to be FA’s Overbay and EE needs to have a breakout seasons to up their trade value or compensation and a few of the arms need to establish themselves as at least bottom-tier #3 starters at the MLB level.
3. Finally we need to see continued development at the minor league level. A breakout here or there would be nice. Can former high-picks (think of Kevin Ahrens and company) get back on track? Not crucial but it would be nice.
National Post
Not all of these things have to happen, but the more the better. Two would make for a successful season.
1. Vernon Wells gets back on track. A season worthy of his contract would go a long way to making Jays fans feel good again. And he seems like a good guy who deserves to catch a break.
2. The young core (Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Ricky Romero) solidifies its production from last year or moves forward. (In light of Adam Lind’s path, the Jays don’t really even need to put a lot of pressure on Travis Snider yet. This is a bit of free year to continue to get him set up for the future.)
3. Either Brett Wallace or Brandon Morrow shows some major-league value for the off-season moves.
4. Some of the injury question marks (Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch) clear up. At least one of these guys needs to be pitching in the rotation at the end of the season.
The Southpaw
First, that Gaston doesn’t screw things up too much as he did at the end of his last tenure – no batting Snider behind Gonzalez and Buck half the year. No obsessive platooning, no unwarranted fascination with Gathright or some other scrub. and Anthopoulos should be willing to take his toys from him if he demonstrates such tendencies.
Second, health and progress among the young, not just in the majors but in the system. So many prospects stalled last year, we need a year in which noticeable progress occurs in most of the more highly rated guys – one particular example is JPA getting a call in August or so (after a vet is traded maybe?). Thirdly VWells re-establishes himself as a player that has some positive impact on the team that can be measured on the field.
Sports and the City
For the 2010 season to be deemed a success, the Jays need to progress. They need to compete. They need to win ball games. No excuses. No lamenting the fact that the best pitcher in baseball is no longer taking the mound every five days. Turn the page. This is a building year, and the season is all about progress. Hill and Lind need to prove that they are for real; they will no longer take anyone by surprise. Snider must show improvement against left-handed pitching (provided Cito gives him the opportunity). Vernon Wells needs to rebound and be a leader on the field, and in the clubhouse; he can no longer defer to Carlos Delgado or Roy Halladay. He has to lead the way and make sure everyone, especially himself, is accountable. The team’s young pitchers need to show resolve and prove that they can pitch against the big boys in the AL East. As long as guys like Romero, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski improve on their rookie campaigns, we’re good. And if Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan can return to the lineup healthy, and contribute, that’s the cherry on top. The rallying cry this season isn’t “Playoffs!!!1” It’s “Progress!!!1”
The Toronto Star
On
– Do not lose 100 games. Ninety, ninety-five we can almost live with. Will have to live with, in all likelihood. But 100 is an ugly benchmark.
– Marcum and Romero must be more than serviceable.
– Everybody else can afford to be serviceable. This year.
– Keep the line-up into elbow/shoulder reconstruction surgery to a thinnish trickle.
– Hill and Lind repeat their monster years.
– Someone else might want to try having a monster year. Is Snider too much to ask? Probably. But we’re asking.
– Vernon Wells … well, we’ve given up on him becoming an $18m/year guy. How about an $8m/year guy who gets $18m?
– Do not blame everything that goes wrong on Cito. It’s cheap, and kind of pointless. Barring some sort of meltdown, let’s just let him manage out the year and leave gracefully.
Off
– A Brinks truck breaks down outside the RC at 5 am. The guards leave. The doors fly open. Alex Anthopoulos is on his way to work and heeeeey!
– Get something substantial for Overbay, Frasor, Downs and whoever else is performing as well as aged.
– Brian Butterfield must be hired as manager.
– Paul Beeston must not lose interest. He is a man of varied interests
– Rogers brass must not lose interest. Literally. If it’s a bad year for the Rogers portfolio the first place they’re going to start tearing out wires is Blue Jays HQ
– Alex Anthopoulos must absolutely crush the entry draft.
Question #4: Should the Jays deal Frasor and Downs for prospects to fill holes, keep them for compensatory draft picks or sign them for the future?
Bluebird Banter
If they can get prospects for one or both of them, then they should trade them. But it is pretty tough to get real prospects for relief pitchers. Maybe the Cubs or the Twins will be desperate enough give us something useful for them. If they can’t get much back in a trade, they both look to be Type A free agents after the season, getting 4 early draft picks for them would be a pretty decent return.
Blue Jay Hunter
I don’t think the Blue Jays should keep both Frasor and Downs – I say keep one, and deal the other at the trade deadline. Personally, I’d prefer they hang onto Frasor and sign him to a 2-year extension and let Downs go, but it will probably end up being the other way around since Frasor currently has more trade value.
Ghost Runner on First
Trade them. The prospect porn madness must come to an end sometime. If mid-level minor league talent with major league potential is out there, acquire that rather than hoping to hit a home run with a pick. The further down the line you can make a decision on player (with your newly-minted phalanx of scouts) the better sense of their ceiling, me thinks.
Hum and Chuck
Jason Frasor has nice mechanics and isn’t often injured (touch wood). Downs is older, but I think the real decision will come when it becomes obvious how the bullpen is shaping up with the younger guys. It’s hard to make a decision based on speculation.
Infield Fly
If the right deal comes along, trade trade trade. If not, let them walk and trust the scouts to make the best use of the draft picks. I’d like to keep them around, but Frasor’s turning 33 this year and Downs just turned 34. They’re definitely guys who have some value, they just don’t have much value to a team that’s not expecting to contend for at least another couple of years.
Jays Journal
If they get good value on the trade market, which I believe they will when teams become more desperate, they should definitely trade both relievers, and possibly trade Brian Tallet as well since he’s boosted his trade value to as high as it can go. The Jays have the pitching depth to replace those arms in the bull pen (Accardo, Purcey, and Valdez), and would do well to get players in return who are closer to helping out the Jays than any draft pick would be. They would also be saving the costs associated with developing those players from scratch.
Jays Tumblr Blog (Go Jays Go)
Depends on the prospects offered I guess but I say no to signing Frasor or Downs long-term. I don’t think either will be a relevant reliever by the time the Jays are ready to make a serious push.
John McDonald’s Cabinet
The Jays need rock solid players in the bullpen because the offense is going to need a chance to come back. So we need to keep them unless we believe their performance or attitude goes south, and thus they could find a fresh start on another team. I don’t know if there are arms that can be moulded into being as capable and reliable as Scott Downs and Jason Frasor have been. Pitching wins ball games. But yes, if you can get something even better, you might as well go for it. It just has to make sense to deal them.
Mop-up Duty (Callum)
Deal them – absolutely. Having a reliable closing pitcher is a luxury a developing team can not afford and the Jays are no exception. Not to say that Frasor and Downs are foolproof, but if one of them or a package of the two can plug a hole in the minor league system, the trigger has to be pulled. For me, a large concern is 3B depth in the minors. I don’t see Kevin Ahrens or Scott Campbell being able to step up their game to the point where they can contribute at the major league level. You have to let EE walk because he is a defensive liability and a black hole financially. He is not the starting 3B on a contending team, ever. It also creates the opportunity to groom a future closer – Josh Roenicke, Daniel Farquhar… or maybe someone else steps up a la Eric Gagne in LA.
Mop-up Duty (Matthias)
I’m all for a deal… at the right price. It may surprise some (at first it surprised me) but Downs and Frasor are far from being spring chickens. Downs will be 35 on opening day in 2011 and Frasor will be 33, turning 34 in mid-season.
If I can deal them for a decent level prospect I’ll do so. That’s even with the knowledge that Downs is likely to bring Type A compensation and Frasor type B. Picks are nice, don’t get me wrong, but the catch-22 is the drafting team has to shell out the bonus $$$. These four possible incoming draft picks could cost close to $2 million to sign. If I can trade for a decent prospect, who’s bonus has already been paid, then I’ll do so.
National Post
In the Jays situation now, I’m in favour of moving them now if you can get the right return. If you don’t move them before the end of the spring, you have to hope they get to the trade deadline with value, when contenders are looking to shore up the setup roles. Banking on compensatory picks is a crap shoot. You can keep them but if they have good years this season, like Marco Scutaro, they won’t be worth the asking price.
The Southpaw
Don’t force a trade – if you don’t get good value then “oh, well”…but if you do get a good offer, by all means take it. Re-signing them is a very low-value move, although I have to admit that if Frasor really has a career year I’ll have a lot of sentimental interest in him staying. But no, there are plenty of ways to move on and resigning them for a big pile of money would be the wrong move.
Gregg on the other hand, I’d deal for half an Otis Nixon baseball card tonight.
Sports and the City
As much as the idea of Kevin Gregg as Toronto’s closer frightens me, with Downs, 34, and Frasor, 32, both headed for free agency, I think it makes sense to see what the market is like for their services. Both would be solid contributors to any bullpen, and if the right deal is on the table, by all means, trade them. That being said, at the right price, I wouldn’t be opposed to either of them staying with Toronto. The Blue Jays have had a reliable bullpen in recent seasons, and those two have been a big reason why. At the end of the day, I’m putting my faith in Alex Anthopoulos. I trust he’ll do what’s best for the ball club.
The Toronto Star
Don’t we all trust Anthopoulos so far? Agreed. We know we want them gone. So let Anthopoulos do a straight up deal so we know exactly what we’re getting for them, and soon.
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